WASHINGTON, D.C. — President Donald Trump has promised a $5,000 “dividend” payment to every American adult if Republicans retain control of the House of Representatives and the Senate in the November midterm elections, a proposal that has raised serious questions about its legality, cost, and potential impact on inflation .
Speaking at the Republican midterm convention in Dallas on Wednesday, Trump said the payments would be called the “Trump dividend” and added a caveat that the money must be spent within the United States. “We don’t want you going to Canada to spend the money. We don’t want you going to China, to Germany. You got to spend the money in the United States of America,” he said .
Is It Legal?
Federal law prohibits offering payments in exchange for votes and separately restricts promises of federally funded benefits in return for political support. Trump’s offer would appear to skirt these prohibitions because it is framed as a campaign promise that would apply to all adult Americans regardless of how they voted . Legal experts suggest the proposal could be protected by the First Amendment, likening it to a pledge to deliver a tax break . However, any such payment would require congressional authorization, as the Constitution bars the president from spending Treasury funds without an appropriation made by law .
How Much Would It Cost?
There are approximately 276.8 million adults aged 18 and over in the United States. Doling out $5,000 to each would cost approximately $1.384 trillion, or about $1.27 trillion if restricted to US citizens . For context, the three rounds of pandemic stimulus checks approved in 2020 and 2021 came to about $814 billion in total .
Could Tariff Money Pay for It?
Not anytime soon. The government collected a record $195 billion in customs duties in fiscal 2025, meaning a $1.4 trillion payout would consume roughly seven years of revenues from Trump’s trade policies. Moreover, the Supreme Court struck down Trump’s signature tariffs in February, forcing the US Treasury to refund importers with interest, and net customs revenue turned negative from May through July . The cost of the dividend checks would dwarf the $330 billion collected in tariff revenue since the start of Trump’s second term .
Would the Checks Make Inflation Worse?
Almost certainly. The US economy is already grappling with significant price pressures, with producer prices rising 5.4% annually in August — the highest reading this year . Consumer inflation is running at 3.4%, well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target . Injecting roughly $1.27 trillion into consumer hands would stir demand in an economy where prices are already rising, partly because of the energy shock from the Iran war. Research published by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis estimated that pandemic-era fiscal stimulus added about 2.6 percentage points to US inflation .
A Familiar Pattern
Trump has made similar pledges in the past that never materialised, including promising Americans $2,000 checks from tariff revenues and $5,000 checks from savings made from drastic federal job cuts. The money never came through .
Political Reaction
Democratic reaction to Trump’s proposal was withering. California Governor Gavin Newsom condemned the pledge as coming from “the most corrupt man ever to occupy the Oval Office.” Representative Jamie Raskin said Trump’s pledge was just the latest move in a “fantastically reckless and dysfunctional presidency” .
The White House insisted Trump would make the latest promise of checks happen. “President Trump has consistently proven his doubters wrong,” White House spokesperson Davis Ingle said .
