President Bola Tinubu has been projected to win the 2027 presidential election, according to an early political forecast by the Political Intelligence Group (PIG) of Politico.ng.
The forecast places Tinubu ahead with 20 states, while former Vice President Atiku Abubakar is projected to win nine states and Labour Party candidate Peter Obi eight states.
PIG said the projection was based on the political situation and circumstances prevailing at the moment, stressing that the forecast could change before the actual election.
According to the group, Tinubu’s perceived achievements in stabilising the economy and his efforts to reposition the country could give him an advantage over his major challengers.
The forecast projects the President to win all six states in the South-West, including Lagos, where he has a strong political base.
Kano State is also projected to fall into Tinubu’s column, giving him a significant foothold in the North.
Atiku projected to win nine states
Atiku Abubakar is projected to win nine states, with PIG predicting that he would retain considerable support in parts of Northern Nigeria, including Kaduna and some states in the North-East and North-West.
The group said Atiku’s established political network and experience from previous presidential campaigns could strengthen his ability to mobilise support across the region.
However, it noted that his chances could depend on his ability to combine his northern support with significant backing from other parts of the country.
Obi projected to win eight states
Peter Obi is projected to win eight states, with the Federal Capital Territory and Edo State among the areas expected to favour him.
The forecast attributed Obi’s projected strength to the support he built during the 2023 presidential election, when he performed strongly in several parts of the country.
PIG said Obi’s campaign is expected to focus on political change, economic management, accountability and efficiency in government.
However, it noted that his major challenge would be expanding his support beyond areas where he has traditionally performed strongly.
Alliances may alter projection.
PIG cautioned that its forecast should not be regarded as the final outcome of the 2027 presidential election.
The group reportedly based the projection on a scenario in which the election was held under the political circumstances prevailing in September 2026.
It said new alliances, defections, coalition arrangements, the choice of running mates and changes in the popularity of the candidates could significantly alter the political landscape before the election.
Economic conditions, including inflation, petrol prices, unemployment, insecurity and the cost of living, could also influence voters’ decisions.
For now, the forecast puts Tinubu ahead with 20 states, followed by Atiku with nine and Obi with eight, while the remaining states remain uncertain.
