Nigeria could record an additional 31,400 heat-related deaths between September 2026 and February 2027 as an unusually strong El Niño weather pattern intensifies, according to a report by the Climate Impact Lab.
The projection places Nigeria among the countries expected to suffer the highest number of additional heat-related deaths globally during the period, accounting for nearly half of the 66,800 deaths projected across the Sahel region.
The report, published on September 22, 2026, and titled 451,000 at Risk: Where Action Can Save Lives During the Super El Niño, estimates that 451,000 additional heat-related deaths could occur worldwide between June 2026 and February 2027 compared with a normal year.
The researchers projected that global land temperatures could rise 1.2 degrees Celsius above normal in the coming months, accompanied by 44 per cent more extremely hot days than typically expected.
Michael Greenstone, a co-founder of the Climate Impact Lab and professor of economics at the University of Chicago, said the projected deaths represented people going about their daily lives.
He said advances in climate research had made it possible to estimate the effects of temperature on mortality, helping governments identify the potential human cost of extreme heat.
The report described the forecast temperatures as a warning of conditions that climate change could make more common in the coming decades.
“This is more than a hot summer, it’s a postcard from the future,” the report stated.
It added that temperatures considered unusually high during the current El Niño event could become normal in a few decades.
Nigeria faces high projected toll
The report estimated that Nigeria could experience 15,400 additional heat-related deaths between December 2026 and February 2027 alone.
Across the Sahel, Sudan was projected to record 17,500 additional heat-related deaths, followed by Niger with 10,000 and Chad with 8,000 during the September-to-February period.
The researchers clarified that the figures represented deaths above those expected in a normal year, rather than the total number of heat-related deaths.
They said the projections could help governments and humanitarian organisations identify vulnerable populations and direct resources towards communities where interventions could save lives.
Report recommends urgent heat protection measures
The Climate Impact Lab identified several measures that could reduce heat-related deaths, including early-warning systems, public heat alerts, health outreach to vulnerable residents and the establishment of cooling centres and hydration stations.
It also recommended stronger protections for outdoor workers, increased water availability and improved healthcare capacity to manage heat-related illnesses.
Tamma Carleton, a co-author of the report and an assistant professor at the University of California, Berkeley, said emergency measures could save lives in the short term, but governments also needed long-term strategies to prepare for rising temperatures.
She called for resources to be mobilised to develop and evaluate measures that would protect communities as extreme temperatures become more frequent.
The researchers said their projections were based on the relationship between temperature and excess mortality across 24,378 regions worldwide, combined with seasonal temperature forecasts.
The estimates compare projected deaths with average figures for the corresponding months between 1996 and 2025.
They cautioned that the projections could change as weather forecasts are updated and warned that heat-related deaths could continue to rise beyond February 2027.
