From October 1, 1960, the future of Nigeria has been perpetually bright. It is always a promising country.

Despite its prevailing precarious situation and years of avoidable setbacks, many African nations still envy the acclaimed ‘Big Brother.’ It is because of the country’s vast endowments.

At independence, many world leaders anticipated a progression towards the emergence of an African giant, a medium-ranking global power that would be sustained by steady economic growth, political stability, military prowess, and technological breakthroughs.

They believed Nigeria had what it takes to be a great country.

The population has remained huge, signifying a big market, resilient manpower, and a colourful blend of cultures. Nigeria is big.

Population experts believe that one of five Africans should be a Nigerian.

In fact, neighbouring countries do not pray for an explosion because the effects would take big tolls on Togo, Benin Republic, Chad, Cameron, Ghana and Niger.

Besides the vital human capital, also exemplified by the amazing quality of population, Nigeria is blessed with a limitless endowment, including the typical black gold – oil – and a large land mass filled with enumerable mineral deposits.

It is only now that concerted efforts are been made to maximise the opportunities offered by the non-oil resources.

Nigeria is also blessed with vast arable lands which can boost agriculture and ensure food security for its people.

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As the British flag was being lowered, world leaders hailed the most populous black country in the world.

They trusted that the nationslist politicians who were stepping into the shoes of the departing colonial masters would really build a virile country and protect the interests of their diverse people.

Many challenges were inherited, including lack of competent personnel to replace the expatriates. Some colonial institutions had to give way.

The regions were developing at their own pace. Political contest was fierce. But the country, at least up to 1960, had a sort of shock absorber. There was federalism and an agreement on unity in diversity.

Barely six years after, the hopes had evaporated. The legitimate authorities were displaced by indigenous interlopers.

There were drawbacks. Civilians and soldiers started alternating governance. Political instability retarted growth across the sectors. Citizens had to endure a prolonged lean period.

At 64, the country is still agonising. But its people are hopeful. According to analysts, the vision of the founding fathers is yet to be fully realised.

While it cannot be said that the country has been static, the progress made, compared to other nations that were on the same pedestal as Nigeria six decades ago, particularly the Asian Tigers, falls below expectations.

To many observers, the national tribulation attests to the failure of indigenous leadership. Patriotic leaders became scarce after independence.

The soldiers of fortune posed as modernisers. They too derailed and started festering their nests.

Nigeria has expanded structures for function performance at federal, state and local levels.

The country is now made up of 36 states, a federal capital territory that is also more or less a state; 774 local governments and many wards.

There are 109 senators, 360 House of Representatives members, 36 Houses of Assembly and other apparatus.

However, service delivery has been dismal. The transition to a welfarist state pales into day dreaming. State and local government creation may have given hope for a redress of inequality and identity problems, but the lopsided distribution in the polity has also triggered agitation for equity and balance.

As it turned out, the exercise only offered the elite access to public resources and monopoly by a few.

Nigeria has created a towering political elite that is so rich at the expense of the common man. The class has the country under its toes.

The country has opted for an expensive presidential system, which can better be moderated, if patriots are in political control across the tiers. Politicians come to voters periodically for endorsement. After that, there is no point of connection until another four years.

Also, there is a wide gulf in the country’s democratising experience. Nigeria has achieved self-rule. But democracy ought to be the destination to redress injustice and restore rights, ensure equity and fairness to all.

Currently, there is a government led by a rational leadership in place at the centre. But curiously, those profiting from the accumulated national rot prefer ‘business as usual.’

Until now, when the umpire is determined to maintain a clean break from the past, Nigeria had been assailed by the crisis of the ballot box.

It has implications for the legitimacy of leadership. When elections remain a nightmare and the battle often shifts from the ballot box to the court, the discerning is left wondering what democracy truly represents in this clime. The cost of litigation is burdensome and stressful.

The nation’s blind rush for power is driven by the alluring pecks of office and the perception that it holds limitless privileges and uninhibited personal acquisitions.

Fundamentally, those seeking power have an intention to corruptly enrish themselves. Even, some townspeople chide their children in power for not acquiring much, claiming that it is their turn.

The country has been grappling with weak institutions, a trend that has strengthened the overbearing influence of power barons who monopolised and personalised power, even in the first two decades of the Fourth Republic.

This is another burden on the current administration in its bid to reposition the country. Not all the moves to rebuild and revatalise the critical institutions seem to be going down well with those eager to maintain the status quo.

From a country of three, and later, four regions, there is a 36-state structure with little bearing on the quality of living. The paradox of a rich country with poor people is confounding.

The Federal Government claims that it is making more money, which it is channelling towards the states. The question is: what are the states doing with the increased allocations?

From few schools at independence, the country now boasts of over over 200 universities belonging to federal, state, and private operators.

Many of the public schools are now underfunded. Whereas the acquisition of education should be fundamental for all citizens, it has now been so commercialised that getting its basics is like a camel passing through the eye of the needle.

Private university graduates see themselves as products of skewed or lopsided cost sharing in the Ivory Towers. Some of them feel they have no allegiance to the state beyond the national anthem and the pledge.

Those in public universities overstay on campuses due to regular teachers’ strike over unfavourable conditions of service and poor infrastructure. The university lecturers are still threatening industrial action.

Even after acquiring it through thick and thin, the job market has become so saturated that thousands of graduates struggle daily to find just any job. In the end, they run away from their land of birth which is ill-prepared to offer them the means to fend for themselves.

Many undergraduates live in perpetual fear of what life holds for them after their academic pursuits.

Today, many youths have lost confidence in their country. They are eager to migrate to Europe or America or anywhere else in search of real and imagined greener pastures. Many of them do not hope to return.

It is gratifying that the Tinubu administration has now set up the students’ loan scheme to assist indigent students. This may prevent dropouts and rekindle youth confidence in the country.

Nigeria survived the threats of disintegration, particularly the civil war foisted on it by parasitic interlopers, the soldiers who loomed large on the polity for 29 years. But, their legacies have remained a factor in retrogression. During the military regimes, Nigeria had a lot of money earned from oil, but government did not know how to spend the money. There was wrong prioritisation. To whom was the military regime accountable?

The nation’s industrialisation is signposted by abandoned projects. The manufacturing sub-sector is on its knees. Gone are the giant firms and industries of old that generated jobs and produced great technocrats. They have been converted to commercialised churches. Power outage is the problem, although the nation is savouring some respite now,following improved electricity at a huge cost. If the stability in the sector is sustained and the mess in the oil and gas sector is cleared, Nigeria would be on the right path to recovery.

Nigeria laments the foreign exchange debacle, but it loathes productivity. It has become a country of imports with attendant capital flights. Oil alone is not enough. Nigeria must revive its manufacturing sub-sector, agriculture and agro-allied industries. The civil service can only offer little outlets for youth employment. With the right policy targetted at the private sector, job creation is more achievable.

The country has not lived up to its role as a model for Africa. Although it has not become a failed state, Nigeria has become an obviously fragile entity. There are danger signals in every region. The national fragility is potentially a stepping stone to state failure. If inequality persists, the development of a national outlook would be very hard. Fortunately, Nigeria has at the helm of affairs a President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, who is a detribalised leader; a symbol of unity.

As Nigeria celebrates its flag independence, Labour, seems to have shelve its war-mongering approach. This year, there is no plan for a strike to protest the high cost of living triggered by the inevitable removal of fuel subsidy. President Tinubu had approved the N70,000 minimum wage for workers. It is expected that states would muster the strength to sustain the wage system and even improve on it. Feelers from the states do not give such optimism.

The subsidy removal is not the problem. It has prevented few individuals or groups from profiting from certain loopholes. But, the greater issue is that the sixth-largest producer of crude oil in the world does not have a functional refinery.

Until recently, crude was exported to bring in revenue and refined products. But the by-products or petrochemicals are lost in inexplicable circumstances. The proceeds are said to be used to import refined fuel for home consumption. In most cases, the revenue and the products always throw up controversies. Given the number of barrels produced daily, a huge revenue is expected to accrue therefrom. But the nation’s sales account has always been hidden in mystery. It is laughable.

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Today, the reality stares Nigeria in the face. Its oil is both a blesing and a curse due to mismanagement. The rich country is in pain. The natural resource is domiciled in a region. Ironically, the zone is in penury. The Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC), which was established to fast-track development in the oil-bearing region became a bastion of graft, where the steal-and-go mentality ruled the minds of the agency’s handlers. The steal and go appears to be abating now, following the setting up of a new management. The management is turning a new leaf under the current administration.

Life expectancy has dropped abysmally in Nigeria. Basic amenities, including potable water, electricity, medical facilities, and roads, are in disrepair. The only prosperous people are those who have been in government, cornered state power and appropriated public resources. This is the reason many analysts have described Nigeria as a big contract up for grabs.

The poverty is more pronounced in the North. Lack of planning, early marriage and disdain for family planning have led to over population that has drained its meagre social infrastructure. Education and enlightenment are very important. There may be a correlation between poverty and insecurity which has been ignored to a collective peril.

Insecurity, banditry and kidnapping for ransom are not peculiar to the North. No geo-political zone is insulated from the violence. The dimension in the South is also worrisome as yahoo yahoo and ritual killings are on the rise.

Put succinctly, across the six geo-political zones, there is no peace. There are security challenges: terrorism, banditry, herder/farmer clashes and unprovoked violence in the North; kidnappings, ritual murders and Yahoo Plus in the West, as well as the unknown gunmen that are always on the prowl in the East.

In Nigeria, the state is the corrupter of society. The military milked Nigeria without challenge. Civilian authorities also deepened the culture of graft and sleaze among public officeholders, despite prosecution by anti-graft bodies.

What has Nigeria learnt from Asian countries, including India, Singapore and Malaysia? They have left Nigeria behind in the march towards development. Although they are not more endowed than Nigeria, they became the Asian Tigers because they had good leadership.

These Asian countries resolved to move forward under their patriotic leaderships to conquer poverty and make impact in the modern world. Many Nigerians who went there for studies are back home. Their impact on governance is not felt because Nigeria suffers from a systemic problem.

It has been a tortuous journey to a problematic future since 1914. Colonialism was devoid of benevolence. The interlopers were only interested in mobilising the resources of colonised people for the development of their home country. The colony and protectorates wobbled in their hard journey to a difficult future.

Even, as the colonial masters were prepared to go, they politically incited ethnic groups against one another. At independence, Nigeria was a country of many rival and competing people struggling for relevance. It could not become a nation, but a complex and highly heterogeneous nation-state in coerced cohabitation. The ray of hope was the subscription to federalism by the leaders who sought to build on the foundation laid by the colonial masters.

The three premiers tried to lay examples of transformational leadership in the Western, Eastern and Northern regions. But, deep-seated rivalry, mutual suspicion and bitter competition for power at the centre upset the polity. The nationalist politicians – Zik, Sardauna, Balewa and Awo – despite their pioneering efforts, refused to play politics of tolerance, accommodation, understanding, and harmony. There was a clash of egos. Each leaned on his ethnic group to sharpen their arrows.

As electoral crisis erupted from the ‘wild wild’ West, it engulfed the country. It should be noted that the mismanagement of the Western regional election was the last straw that broke the back of the camel.

The 1966 military coup that followed unleashed monumemtal disasters. It deepened the distrust and suspicion among the unequal regions. Legitimate authorities gave way to dictatorial leadership. Again, to whom were the soldiers accountable? Surely, they were not answerable to the “bloody civilians.”

The mistake of the first military ruler, Major-General Thomas Aguiyi-Ironsi, who foisted the strange unitary system on the country through his controversial unification decree, marked the beginning of the journey to gloom. He was a fine soldier, a professional military man. But, as an administrator, his government was not impressive. He was an ethnic bigot in national uniform; clannish, discriminative, inexperienced, incompetent, ill-prepared and slow and indecisive. He created more problems than he met on ground.

Also, dis unfortunate death unleashed more challenges relating to politico-military succession. The chain of events led to the avoidable 30-month civil war.

Today, some leaders may be dodging the national question. Yet, its resolution is critical to peace and harmony. The crux of the matter is that it was not Nigeria that was colonised by the British. It was the kingdoms – Yoruba, Nupe, Fulani, Kanuri, Ebira, Efik, Ibibio, and Bini, among others – that were colonised.

Nigeria has aptly been described as a mere geographical expression. Diverse people from incompatible social formations were lumped together to coexist. The question is: on what terms?

The 1999 Constitution has continued to lie against itself. What is the basis for peaceful coexistence? Restructuring, the anticipated elixir for true national cohesion, should not be put in abeyance. If Nigeria desires security, it should also consider state and community policing. It is gratifying that President Tinubu has given his nod to state police.

Nigeria is still being confronted by an identity crisis. Why is a section still pushing for disintegration or balkanisation? Is it not due to feelings of alienation, marginalisation and injustice?

The country has also continued to grapple with a distribution crisis. How the wealth is generated is usually less important than how it is distributed. Thus, fair play is said to be absent.

There is hope under the current administration. Its people oriented policies and programmes are reassuring. Many problems were inherited by the administration. They cannot be resolved within a year.

But, speed is also required to sustain the cooperation of the distressed citizens for the government.

The past is consigned to history. But the present can be devoted to reforms and other corrective measures, which should permeate the sectors.

Nigeria yearns for great leadership. An opportunity is presented to President Bola Tinubu to lead the country through these lean and challenging times. Expectations are high for him to implement his ‘Renewed Hope Agenda’ with utmost fidelity.

If President Tinubu can restore regular power supply and revive the ailing refineries, Nigeria will be on the path to survival.

The informal sector would have been liberated and the measures would be an incentive to local and foreign investment.

The government should refocus public spending in a way that will trigger productive activities and wealth generation.

The country should pay attention to agriculture to guarantee food security. President Tinubu is doing that.

Leadership should have a national outlook. This is being demonstrated by the President’s critical appointments.

Nepotism will only accentuate suspicion and generate nasty thoughts about ethnic domination which would fuel the fear of marginalisation and exclusion.

Where should Nigeria be in the next 63 years?

Hopefully, a technological giant; a great federal democracy; a self-sufficient country; an industrial hub; a secured polity; a united nation-state; and a world power should be birthed sooner than later, if all goes well. What will, however, point in that direction is the foundation that is being laid today.

The government and people of Nigeria should dream big about the future, jettison habits that impede development in private and public, and lay a concrete foundation for future prosperity under a rational and responsible leadership.