I. Introduction

This brief establishes, on legal and evidentiary grounds, that ongoing atrocities committed by Boko Haram, ISWAP, Fulani militant herders, and allied extremist networks constitute genocide under international law, specifically Article II of the Genocide Convention, as domesticated by the Rome Statute to which Nigeria is a signatory.

While the Nigerian government has often dismissed international outcry as exaggerated or politically motivated, the intent, acts, and systematic targeting of identifiable religious and ethnic groups — particularly Christians in the Middle Belt and North-East — meet all the constituent elements of genocide.

This brief focuses not on the language of diplomacy, but on the factual architecture of extermination sustained by state inaction and international indifference.

II. Legal Framework: Definition of Genocide

Under Article II of the Genocide Convention, genocide means any of the following acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial, or religious group, as such:

1. Killing members of the group;

2. Causing serious bodily or mental harm;

3. Deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part;

4. Imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group;

5. Forcibly transferring children of the group to another group.

III. Element 1 — Killing Members of the Group

Legal Requirement:

The deliberate killing of individuals because of their membership in a protected group.

Factual Correlation in Nigeria:

Boko Haram’s founding declaration under Mohammed Yusuf (2002–2009) called for the elimination of Christians and “Westernized Muslims”, identifying Christianity as the religion of the Book (Ahl al-Kitab) and Western education as haram — sinful and corrupting. The coded expression “Boko Haram” (Book is Forbidden) is thus a religious death warrant against Christians and their institutions.

Documented Attacks:

1. 2011 Christmas Day Bombing of St. Theresa Catholic Church, Madalla — 44 killed, 70 injured.
2. 2014 Chibok School Abduction — over 270 Christian girls targeted from a government secondary school known for Christian studentship.
3. 2018–2023 Plateau and Benue massacres — hundreds killed in Christian-majority communities such as Barkin Ladi, Agatu, and Miango.
4. 2023 Mangu, Plateau State — over 200 villagers, mostly Christians, murdered by Fulani militants in coordinated night raids.

Each of these attacks demonstrates not random violence but targeted elimination of Christians identified as the “people of the Book.”

IV. Element 2 — Causing Serious Bodily or Mental Harm

Legal Requirement:

Torture, mutilation, rape, or psychological trauma aimed at destroying group life or integrity.

Factual Correlation in Nigeria:

Rape and Enslavement: Captured women and girls — including the Chibok, Dapchi, and Leah Sharibu cases — were forcibly married, raped, or converted to Islam, creating generational trauma in affected Christian communities.

Psychological Terror: Villages have been burned, children made to witness parents executed, and pastors beheaded on camera. The public broadcasting of killings is a psychological weapon of terror designed to paralyze the Christian population into silence and displacement.

Trauma-Induced Displacement: Over 3 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) in the North-East are overwhelmingly Christian minorities suffering post-traumatic stress from sustained attacks.

These acts meet the Akayesu standard (ICTR, 1998), where rape, torture, and persecution constituted serious bodily and mental harm within the meaning of Article II(b).

V. Element 3 — Deliberately Inflicting Conditions of Life Calculated to Destroy the Group

Legal Requirement:

Creation of living conditions (starvation, forced displacement, systemic denial of protection) intended to cause the group’s destruction.

Factual Correlation in Nigeria:

Occupation of Ancestral Lands: Fulani militants have taken over thousands of Christian farmlands across Benue, Plateau, Southern Kaduna, and Taraba, ensuring economic strangulation and starvation of survivors.

Destruction of Livelihoods: Villages razed and churches reduced to ashes — with no state resettlement plan or compensation — create deliberate, sustained uninhabitability.

State Complicity: The refusal to arrest perpetrators or rebuild Christian villages reinforces a climate of intended annihilation by abandonment.

Internal Displacement Camps: Conditions in IDP camps — overcrowding, hunger, lack of schools and medical care — mirror the “conditions of life” test applied in Prosecutor v. Karadžić (ICTY), where forced displacement and deprivation of basic needs amounted to genocidal intent.

VI. Element 4 — Imposing Measures Intended to Prevent Births within the Group

Legal Requirement:

Policies or acts (sexual violence, forced marriages, sterilization, or separation of sexes) designed to prevent the group from reproducing.

Factual Correlation in Nigeria:

Systematic Rape of Captive Girls: Boko Haram’s sexual slavery, forced pregnancy, and religious conversion of abducted Christian girls are designed to erase Christian lineage through forced Islamization of offspring.

Gender-Based Violence: Pregnant women murdered or mutilated during raids; hospitals and clinics destroyed in Christian settlements, ensuring maternal deaths and infertility.

Forced Conversions: Children of abducted Christian women raised as Muslims, effectively preventing the continuity of the Christian bloodline within affected communities.

This meets the jurisprudence of Prosecutor v. Akayesu, where sexual violence and forced impregnation were recognized as genocidal acts intended to destroy a group biologically.

VII. Element 5 — Forcibly Transferring Children of the Group to Another Group

Legal Requirement:

The removal of children from their group and placement under the control of another, thereby severing cultural and religious identity.

Factual Correlation in Nigeria:

Abductions in Chibok, Dapchi, and Zamfara: Thousands of children kidnapped and indoctrinated under jihadist control. Many converted, renamed, and assimilated into extremist households.

Reports by UNICEF and Amnesty International confirm that abducted children are taught Arabic, Quranic indoctrination, and trained as child soldiers — an act of forced cultural transfer.

Government Failure to Reclaim or Rehabilitate: The continued disappearance of children and official silence solidify the act’s permanence — satisfying the element of forcible transfer.

VIII. Establishing Intent (“Dolus Specialis”)

Under international law, intent may be inferred from:

• Systematic patterns of killing and targeting;
• The nature of the attacks;
• Public statements and propaganda;
• The scale and repetition of atrocities.

Evidentiary Basis in Nigeria:

Boko Haram’s Manifestos and Sermons: Mohammed Yusuf and Abubakar Shekau both proclaimed a mission to “cleanse Nigeria of Christianity and Westernization.”

Public Statements: Shekau’s 2012 broadcast declared: “We are at war with Christians generally.”

Target Patterns: Repeated massacres during Christian services, Christmas celebrations, and school gatherings demonstrate intent to annihilate the group in part.

Failure of State Intervention: The Nigerian government’s repeated refusal to prosecute attackers or rebuild Christian communities constitutes tacit approval, satisfying the Mens Rea element of “knowledge and acceptance” in genocidal policy under Jelisić v. The Prosecutor (ICTY, 1999).

IX. Juridical Comparison

Precedent Case Conduct Comparable Nigerian Reality

1. Rwanda (ICTR, 1998):
   • Targeted killings of Tutsis by militias with state complicity
   • Targeted killings of Christians by Boko Haram/Fulani militias with state inaction
2. Bosnia (ICTY, 2001):
   • Forced displacement and starvation as genocidal tools
   • Displacement and occupation of Christian communities in Middle Belt
3. Darfur (ICC, 2009):
   • Systematic rape and village destruction
   • Widespread sexual slavery, razing of Christian villages
4. Akayesu (ICTR, 1998):
   • Rape as means of preventing births
   • Forced impregnation and Islamization of abducted Christian girls

X. Conclusion: Beyond Diplomatic Denial

The Nigerian situation, when assessed under Article II of the Genocide Convention, satisfies each element in form and substance:

Article II Clause Documented Incident / Pattern in Nigeria

(a) Killing members: Church bombings, mass executions, community purges
(b) Serious harm: Rape, torture, psychological terror
(c) Conditions of destruction: Land seizures, starvation, displacement
(d) Preventing births: Forced marriages, sexual enslavement
(e) Transfer of children: Kidnapping and indoctrination of minors

It is no longer defensible — legally or morally — to dismiss this as “communal clashes” or “banditry.”

The intent, acts, and pattern establish a continuing genocide against Christians in Northern and Middle Belt Nigeria.

XI. Recommendations

1. International Inquiry: Establish a UN-mandated Commission of Inquiry on Nigeria’s religious violence.

2. Universal Jurisdiction: Encourage prosecution of principal actors under the Rome Statute through ICC mechanisms.

3. Domestic Accountability: Enforce constitutional protection for life and religion under Sections 33 and 38 of the Nigerian Constitution.

4. Protection of Victims: Secure IDPs, rebuild destroyed communities, and end impunity through a National Genocide Remembrance Act.

Prepared by: Citizen Bolaji O. Akinyemi, Apostle and Nation Builder

Now that it has been established beyond dispute that Air Peace paid one hundred million naira for land in Anambra State – land intended for the construction of aviation facilities of billions of Naira that would have advanced commerce, aviation, and employment in the region – and was yet treated unfairly, we are compelled to ask: what does this reveal about the character of the Governor who held office in August 2021, when the payment was made. I do not want to mention names; I believe we should simply focus on the issues.

Was he, perhaps, denied a personal stake in the venture and, in resentment, withdrew his hand of approval? Or was it yet another symptom of that tragic season in a state’s life when governance descends into pettiness and public interest is sacrificed on the altar of ego? Whatever the cause, the consequence remains unchanged — the betrayal of public trust and the paralysis of collective progress.

I am sure Air Peace must be saying to himself, “I wish it had been under Obi.” Other industrialists may have told him – with cheeks bursting with pride – how Mr. Peter Obi treated them. Which industry in Anambra did Obi not visit and support – at least by constructing access roads to their locations, bringing President Goodluck Jonathan to personally commission their facilities, purchasing their products, and even marketing them himself? I remember how he personally traversed the bushes of the state while seeking land for some of the investors who came during his tenure.

If I were the Governor, I would seek out Air Peace with apologies, refund the money, and demonstrate my renewed commitment by granting the company land twice the size of what was previously denied. I would then appeal to them to expand their operations within the state. It is not too late.

Many Anambra people are unaware of what Air Peace is quietly doing for the state. Have you not noticed that Anambra now has more pilots than any other state in the country, and that thousands of its indigenes are employed by the airline – without noise or “Dorime?”

In enlightened societies, governments court investors with open arms, offering incentives, waivers, and even tax holidays, knowing that the prosperity of industry is the prosperity of the state. Here, however, we too often convert opportunity into hunt for personal gain. We repel those whose enterprise might have lifted thousands, and in so doing, condemn ourselves to perpetual underdevelopment.

One must therefore ask: to whom was that same parcel of land later allocated? Should it not be revoked now, as a gesture of remorse and a lesson from a state mourning a lost opportunity?

This is no isolated case. The same shortsightedness – allocate to me my own share mentality- drove International Breweries to abandon Anambra for Shagamu, despite having been granted land by the banks of the Omambala River. Distell, too, fled Ozubulu after preparatory works, and the land they left behind found its way into private hands. Likewise, Neimeth Pharmaceuticals withdrew from their planned facility in Amawbia, though a ground-breaking ceremony had already been held with fanfare and official optimism.

The Managing Director of Emzor Pharmaceuticals is still pained that she could not secure their ongoing massive expansion in Anambra rather than in Shagamu. Like Air Peace, the full story will one day be told.

If the Juhel facility had not come up during Obi’s tenure, perhaps it too would have been in Shagamu by now.

Each of these episodes is not merely a missed investment; it is a small tragedy in the chronicle of a people struggling against themselves. For when enterprise departs, development recedes. When ambition is thwarted by envy, or public duty is subdued by private greed, the spirit of progress falters.

Let it be said plainly: governance is the art of sensing opportunity for the governed and utilizing it. It is not about drinking oneself to stupor as a routine ritual. It is a trust held on behalf of the unborn. Unless those in power learn this eternal truth, Anambra – rich in talent but poor in foresight – will continue to watch opportunity sail away while others reap the harvest of her abandoned promise.

Between Yakubu and What Comes Next

Before the curtain falls on Professor Mahmood Yakubu’s tenure, Nigeria must confront the truth that our electoral crisis was never about one man. For decades, our democracy has been trapped in a structure that rewards manipulation and punishes integrity. Each new INEC chairman — professor, Muslim, or Christian — has inherited a hoe bent toward the interests of those who appointed him. The Yoruba say, “Ti a ba fun wèrè ní loko, ó d’ò ara ẹ ni à ròkò sí” — give a madman a hoe, and he will till toward himself.

The system, not the steward, is our problem. The 2023 polls merely dramatized what we already knew: without structural reform, every election will end in the courts, every mandate will be questioned, and every government will lack legitimacy.

Yakubu’s years at INEC revealed both the promise and the peril of electoral administration under executive control. His BVAS and IReV innovations rekindled hope, yet the opaque transmission and selective compliance shattered public trust. Now, as whispers grow about his early exit, Nigeria must resist another sentimental rotation of personnel and insist on genuine institutional redesign.

Power over INEC appointments must move beyond the presidency’s reach, and transparency must become law, not discretion. The next chairman — Amupitan — will inherit the same broken hoe unless we straighten it now.

This is our transition moment: from personalities to principles, from excuses to engineering. The question is no longer who chairs INEC, but what INEC becomes.

Amupitan: The Test Before the Turning Point

Every season in Nigeria’s democracy throws up a name — not necessarily the most competent, but the most convenient. Recent murmurs within the corridors of power have become the news; Amupitan has surfaced as the next name in Nigeria’s electoral journey. But before we hurry to hail or hate him, we must pause and ask: What system will he inherit, and who will he serve?

For decades, every INEC chairman has entered the same burning house with a new broom, only to discover that the fire was not in the ashes of the last election but in the foundation of the institution itself. If Amupitan becomes the next tenant in that house without changing the architecture, he too will end up sweeping smoke.

This is why his coming must not be treated as another appointment, but as a national test — the test of whether President Bola Ahmed Tinubu will rise above partisan instincts and become the statesman who delivers to Nigeria a truly independent electoral body.

The challenge before Amupitan, if he is confirmed by the Senate, will not be the perfection of logistics or technology but the sanctification of trust. Can Nigerians, for once, go to the polls without fear that results will be rewritten between collation centers and courtrooms?

The Yoruba say, “Ọba tí kì í fọwọ́ mú òtítọ́, a fi ẹ̀sìn ṣeré” — the king who won’t handle truth with his hands will play religion with his feet. Nigeria has played too long with faith in her democracy. The appointment of Amupitan must mark a departure from old habits — or 2027 will meet us, not with renewed hope, but with the ashes of another electoral funeral.

Amupitan and the Burden of Legacy

Every president is remembered, not for how many roads he built or appointments he made, but for the institutions he strengthened — or destroyed. For President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the appointment of Amupitan as the new INEC Chairman will not just be an administrative decision; it will be the defining test of his Renewed Hope mantra.

Now that Amupitan is the choice, history will not ask whether he is Yoruba from Kogi in the North Central, Christian or Muslim, professor or politician. History will ask whether his emergence marked the rebirth of an independent electoral institution or the recycling of political puppetry.

In truth, Tinubu’s presidency faces two roads: one leads to the statesman’s immortality, the other to political infamy. The first requires him to separate party interest from national interest, to resist the temptation of rigging the 2027 game before it begins. The other path — the path of control, manipulation, and executive capture of INEC — will turn 2027 into a democratic doomsday.

Amupitan therefore stands as a mirror — not just of Tinubu’s conscience but of Nigeria’s capacity for reform. If he is truly independent, it will show that Tinubu is ready to rebuild the moral foundation of leadership. But if he is another partisan placeholder, it will confirm that Nigeria has learned nothing, and forgotten nothing.

The stakes could not be higher. The same system that produced Yakubu’s frustrations must not swallow Amupitan’s future. Nigeria is bleeding from the wounds of stolen mandates and silenced voices. The next INEC must not just conduct elections; it must restore faith.

A Charge to Prof. Joash Ojo Amupitan

I urge you, Amupitan, never to seek fraud in tribe, nor let it sneak past you in sentiment. Your name — Joash, “God has given” — carries the burden of divine trust; Ojo, the daring soul born with the cord of destiny; and Amupitan, the man sent to change our story. Rise to the mission. Be the fear of corrupt politicians and the joy of the people. May your tenure end as Amupitan rere — the good restorer of Nigeria — whose legacy of justice will outlive your time, your children, and your children’s children.

2027: Between Reformation and Ruin

Every election cycle in Nigeria reopens the same wound: a people desperate for change, and a system determined to resist it. But 2027 will not be another date on the political calendar — it will be a referendum on our collective sanity.

If we dare to enter that year with the same broken system that mocked the will of voters in 2023, then we are simply scheduling another funeral for democracy. The signs are already there: voter apathy growing into disbelief, judiciary reduced to arithmetic, and political elites converting public offices into private estates. What began as a constitutional crisis has now become a crisis of faith.

Yet, hope still whispers. The reform of our electoral system can still redeem the Republic. If Tinubu seizes this moment — not as a partisan general, but as a constitutional reformer — history will remember him as the man who saved Nigeria’s democracy from itself. The same constitution that empowers him to appoint an INEC Chairman also gives him the chance to rise above that power. To restrain himself is to reform the nation.

We must understand: no democracy survives long where the votes of citizens are weaker than the whims of politicians. The time to act is now — not after another rigged election, not after another street protest, not after another judicial tragedy.

The Yoruba say, “A kii fi ọwọ́ otun dá’gi, ká má f’ọwọ́ òsì gbe e” — you cannot break a tree with the right hand and raise it with the left. For democracy to stand, both the leaders and the led must uphold it.

2027 stands before us like a judgment seat. We can choose reformation — and live. Or choose ruin — and bury what remains of our Republic. The hoe is ready; may we till straight this time.

Dr. Bolaji O. Akinyemi is an Apostle and Nation Builder. He’s also President Voice of His Word Ministries and Convener Apostolic Round Table. BoT Chairman, Project Victory Call Initiative, AKA PVC Naija. He is a strategic Communicator and the C.E.O, Masterbuilder Communications.