Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has said his government has considered the remote possibility of military action by the United States against Canada.
Carney made the disclosure in an interview with The New York Times, saying his administration had examined what he described as an “extreme tail risk” scenario and prepared accordingly.
“I think you have a responsibility in these roles to look at extreme tail risk. That’s just risk management. That’s not a base case, but it would be irresponsible not to prepare,” Carney said.
Tensions between the two neighbouring countries have increased under US President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly referred to Canada as the “51st state.”
Trump’s administration has also imposed tariffs on Canadian goods, with the two countries responding with retaliatory trade measures.
Despite the tensions, Carney said he still speaks with Trump frequently and described their relationship as functional.
“From my perspective, we have a good relationship in the sense of we can pick up the phone and talk to each other about issues,” he said.
Carney added that both leaders were direct about their positions, making their discussions more efficient.
The Canadian prime minister also said he believed there was still a path towards resuming trade negotiations with Washington, adding that restoring more amicable relations would benefit both countries.
The possibility of military conflict would be highly unequal, with the US having more than two million active-duty and reserve personnel compared with fewer than 200,000 in Canada, according to figures cited by the BBC.
The US also had 65 military submarines as of 2024, compared with four operated by Canada.
However, Canada’s long coastline and proximity to the Arctic have prompted Carney’s government to increase defence spending since he took office.
