Creeping Danger In Broad Daylight
Introduction:
When Democracy Begins to Whisper.
“Democracy seldom ends with a bang; it fades away with a whisper,” warned Fareed Zakaria of CNN. That whisper now trembles across Nigeria’s political terrain.
Under the Tinubu-led All Progressives Congress (APC), Nigeria is witnessing an unprecedented wave of defections from the opposition — a silent political realignment that risks mutating the country’s plural democracy into a one-party behemoth.
The dramatic defection of Governor Sheriff Oborevwori of Delta State, followed swiftly by Umo Eno (Akwa Ibom), Peter Mbah (Enugu), and Douye Diri (Bayelsa), signaled not conviction but capitulation — a surrender to fear, power, and patronage.
With the Presidency perceived to command the INEC, Judiciary, and Security institutions, the balance of democratic power has tilted dangerously toward executive absolutism.
As Alexis de Tocqueville warned in Democracy in America (1835):
“The greatest danger to liberty is not the tyranny of a single man, but the apathy of a people content to let him rule in their stead.”
Imperatives Behind the Defection Wave.
1. Politics of Fear and Survival.
In a climate of uncertainty, defection becomes an act of self-preservation. The opposition no longer competes — it negotiates survival. State coercion, judicial intimidation, and political persecution have replaced ideological conviction with expedient submission.
2. Institutional Capture and Executive Overreach.
Control of electoral, judicial, and security bodies by the ruling elite transforms democracy into managed pluralism — where opposition is tolerated but never allowed to triumph.
3. Patronage and Rent-Seeking.
Nigeria’s rentier structure rewards loyalty to the center. Access to contracts, appointments, and state protection often depends on party alignment, deepening clientelism and eroding political independence.
4. Absence of Ideological Politics.
With political parties devoid of firm philosophies, defection carries no moral weight. Politics becomes transactional — an auction of allegiance to whoever holds the levers of power.
Consequences: Democracy in Distress.
1. Erosion of Opposition and Voter Choice
Elections risk becoming mere formalities — ritual confirmations of the ruling party’s dominance.
As Samuel Huntington warned:
“Without institutionalized opposition, democracy is merely the rotation of elites.”
2. Judicial Subservience and the Decline of Rule of Law.
When courts become political instruments, justice dies silently — and tyranny gains legal cover.
3. Economic and Governance Fragility
Investor confidence erodes in systems where patronage dictates governance and fiscal prudence is sacrificed for political loyalty.
4. Authoritarian Drift
Montesquieu’s axiom remains eternal:
“Power must be checked by power, else it becomes despotic.”
Comparative Reflections: Lessons from Zimbabwe, Turkey, and South Africa.
I. Zimbabwe – From Liberation to Captivity.
Zimbabwe offers the clearest mirror of Nigeria’s current drift.
After independence, ZANU-PF under Robert Mugabe institutionalized dominance through coercion, clientelism, and control of electoral and judicial institutions. Opposition voices were neutralized through harassment, selective prosecutions, and electoral manipulation.
Over time, ZANU-PF’s hegemony created a political culture where loyalty was rewarded and dissent criminalized. The economy collapsed not from external enemies but from internal authoritarian excess.
Lesson for Nigeria:
When electoral commissions and courts become tools of the ruling elite, democracy loses both credibility and moral legitimacy. Institutional independence must precede political stability — not the reverse.
II. Turkey – Legal Authoritarianism in Disguise.
Turkey under Recep Tayyip Erdoğan provides an even subtler lesson.
Through his Justice and Development Party (AKP), Erdoğan used constitutional and legal reforms to centralize power within an elected autocracy. He controlled the judiciary, suppressed independent media, and used security agencies to intimidate opponents — all within the veneer of constitutionalism.
Erdoğan perfected what scholars call “authoritarian legalism” — the art of killing democracy through the instruments of law.
Lesson for Nigeria:
Authoritarianism no longer wears uniforms; it now dons the robes of legality. When democratic structures are weaponized by incumbents, liberty dies — not by coup, but by consent.
III. South Africa – The Monotony of Dominance.
South Africa’s African National Congress (ANC) shows how prolonged dominance erodes moral capital.
Though the ANC liberated South Africa from apartheid, its uninterrupted rule since 1994 has bred corruption, complacency, and internal factionalism. Through “cadre deployment,” party loyalists replaced meritocracy in public service, weakening institutions and public trust.
The opposition — notably the Democratic Alliance (DA) and Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) — remains electorally marginalized, unable to unseat the ANC despite its failures.
Lesson for Nigeria:
Even liberation movements decay when unchecked. Political virtue erodes under unbroken dominance. Democracy demands periodic renewal through credible contestation, not inherited entitlement.
Shared Lessons and Nigerian Implications.
Across these three examples, a pattern emerges:
Control of institutions always precedes the decline of democracy.
Economic decay follows political centralization.
Civil liberties shrink as ruling elites conflate themselves with the state.
For Nigeria, these lessons are chillingly familiar.
Once political survival depends on party loyalty, and justice depends on executive favour, the Republic stands on the precipice of democratic suffocation.
Political and Electoral Security under Democratic Liberty and Justice.
In genuine democracies, security is designed to protect liberty; in failing democracies, it is redesigned to preserve power.
The growing convergence of Nigeria’s security agencies, electoral institutions, and judiciary under executive control has profound implications for liberty and justice.
1. Politicization of Security Agencies
When police, DSS, and military deployments are influenced by political directives, opposition parties campaign under fear. Electoral violence and intimidation become predictable instruments of control.
2. INEC and Electoral Integrity
The credibility of INEC depends not on technology, but on autonomy. Where appointments are partisan and results can be influenced through judicial reinterpretation, the electoral mandate loses sanctity.
3. Judicial Capture and Electoral Adjudication.
Post-election tribunals now determine outcomes more than ballot boxes. When judges become the final arbiters of political loyalty rather than justice, democracy becomes hollow.
4. Civil Liberty versus State Security
Under the guise of maintaining order, dissent is often securitized. Peaceful protests are criminalized, journalists are surveilled, and opposition rallies restricted — all justified in the name of “national security.”
Yet as Thomas Jefferson observed,
“The price of liberty is eternal vigilance.”
True security is not the silence of dissent but the safety of those who speak truth to power.
Reclaiming Nigeria’s Democratic Soul: Reform and Renewal.
I. Institutional Independence: Insulate INEC, judiciary, and security agencies from executive control.
II. Constitutional Anti-Defection Enforcement: Defectors should automatically forfeit their mandate unless within coalition agreements.
III. Strengthen Legislative Oversight: Empower the National Assembly to review security deployments during elections.
Political Finance Regulation: Audit and sanction misuse of public funds for partisan activities.
IV. Civic Empowerment: Guarantee the protection of journalists, NGOs, and human rights defenders.
V. Civic Education and Political Literacy: Democracy dies where citizens do not understand their rights.
Philosophical Conclusion: Between Dominion and Deliverance.
Nigeria’s democracy stands at a moral and institutional crossroads — between freedom and fear, between pluralism and political captivity.
The recent defections of Delta, Akwa Ibom, and Bayelsa leaders do not symbolize unity; they reveal submission — the quiet colonization of conscience under the weight of power.
Democracy is not the absence of order; it is the presence of choice.
It is the courage to oppose even when outnumbered, and the will to stand even when standing alone.
As Karl Popper warned:
“The essence of democracy is not that the people rule, but that they can dismiss their rulers without bloodshed.”
And as Edmund Burke immortalized,
“The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing.”
If Nigerians surrender their vigilance, democracy will continue in name but perish in essence- democratic absolutism is akin to authoritarianism.
The call to conscience is clear: reform, resist, and restore — for liberty once lost is seldom regained without struggle.
Dr. By T. A. Adegba
