The ongoing war involving Iran is triggering what energy experts describe as the largest disruption ever recorded in global oil supplies, according to a new report from the International Energy Agency (IEA).
The agency warned that the conflict in the Middle East has severely disrupted crude shipments, largely due to the near shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime route for global energy trade.
In its latest market assessment, the IEA said global oil production could fall sharply this month as Gulf producers scale back output due to security risks and shipping disruptions.
According to the report, producers in the Gulf region have already reduced oil production by at least 10 million barrels per day because the Strait of Hormuz has become almost impossible for commercial shipping to navigate safely.
As a result, the agency expects global oil output to drop by about 8 million barrels per day in March, representing a decline of more than 7 percent from the roughly 107 million barrels per day produced in February.
“The war in the Middle East is creating the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market,” the agency said.
Gulf Producers Hit Hard
The disruption has significantly affected major oil producers across the Gulf.
Countries including Iraq, Qatar, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia have all recorded declines in production as maritime risks increase in the region.
However, the IEA said part of the supply gap could be offset by increased production from Russia, Kazakhstan, and other non-OPEC producers.
Alternative Export Routes
To avoid the dangers of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, some Gulf countries have begun rerouting oil exports through alternative ports.
Saudi Arabia, for example, has significantly increased shipments through its western Red Sea ports.
According to the IEA, Saudi Arabia exported a record 5.9 million barrels per day through its western ports on March 9, compared to an average of 1.7 million barrels per day in 2025.
Meanwhile, the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company has boosted exports from the Port of Fujairah, a major energy hub in the United Arab Emirates.
Between March 4 and March 9, the company loaded an average of 2.4 million barrels per day from Fujairah, which is connected to oil production facilities in Habshan via pipeline and supported by the Al-Mandous crude storage cavern.
Long-Term Supply Uncertainty
Energy analysts warn that the scale of the disruption will largely depend on how long the conflict continues.
Although the IEA still expects global oil supply to grow slightly in 2026, the agency has significantly reduced its forecast.
It now estimates supply could increase by about 1.1 million barrels per day next year, far lower than the 2.4 million barrels per day growth it predicted only a month ago.
The report underscores growing concerns that prolonged instability in the Middle East could continue to shake global energy markets, increase fuel prices, and intensify economic uncertainty worldwide.
