Vietnam scraps two-child policy amid declining birthrate

Vietnam has officially ended its long-standing policy that limited families to two children, a move aimed at addressing the country’s declining birthrate.

The announcement, made by state media on Wednesday, June 4, 2025, marks a significant policy reversal, allowing couples to decide independently how many children to have and how long to wait between births.

This shift abandons the decades-old preference for families to have one or two children.

The two-child policy’s roots date back to the 1960s in communist North Vietnam and were further solidified after Vietnam’s reunification in the 1980s and 1990s.

The country’s first formal family planning decree was enacted in 1988, promoting the two-child family model.

Although the policy was not uniformly enforced across all segments of society, members of the Communist Party were subject to sanctions if they failed to comply.

Vietnam’s decision to scrap the two-child limit comes amid concerns over a rapidly declining birthrate.

This reportedly reached a record low of 1.91 children per woman in 2024, below the replacement level needed to maintain the population size.

This demographic trend has raised alarms among officials.

They fear it will accelerate the aging of Vietnam’s population, leading to:

• labor shortages,
• increased strain on social welfare systems, and,
• potential threats to the country’s economic development plans.

The decline in birthrates is particularly pronounced in urban areas like Ho Chi Minh City.

In such areas, the rising cost of living has been identified as a significant deterrent for young couples considering having children.

The city’s birthrate dropped to a mere 1.32 children per woman in 2023, illustrating the extent of the demographic challenge in urban centers.

To counteract these trends, local governments across Vietnam have introduced various incentives to encourage childbearing.

These measures include offering certificates of merit and modest financial rewards, approximately 1 million dong (about £28), to women who have two children before turning 35.

Some provinces, such as Tien Giang in southern Vietnam, have implemented more substantial incentives.

It awarded up to 30 million dong to communes and wards where 60% of couples of childbearing age have two children over three consecutive years.

Despite these efforts, birthrates in such areas continue to decline.

Looking at the national trend, Vietnam’s birthrate fell steadily over recent years.

It dropped from 2.11 children per woman in 2021 to 2.01 in 2022, 1.96 in 2023, and finally to 1.91 in 2024.

Similar demographic challenges are being observed in neighboring Southeast Asian countries, including Singapore, Thailand, and Malaysia.

Vietnam’s situation mirrors broader regional and global trends.

For instance, Japan recently reported its birthrate for 2024 fell below 700,000 births for the first time on record.

This highlighted the challenge of aging populations and declining fertility rates in many parts of Asia.

Vietnam had previously relaxed its two-child policy in 2003, allowing for more flexibility, but this was reversed in 2008, reinstating the limits as part of ongoing family planning efforts.

In addition to concerns about the overall birthrate, Vietnam is also working to address an imbalance in its sex ratio at birth.

It is supposedly a legacy of cultural preference for boys.

The Ministry of Health recently proposed increasing fines for fetal gender selection from current levels to as much as $3,800 to deter the practice.

This is according to state media.

Although the gender ratio has improved somewhat, it remains skewed at 112 boys for every 100 girls, which raises social and demographic concerns.

Vietnam’s policy changes can be viewed in the context of broader shifts in Asia regarding family planning.

China, for example, ended its strict “one-child policy” in 2016 and expanded it in 2021 to allow couples to have up to three children.

Despite these policy relaxations, China’s population declined for the third consecutive year in 2024.

It underscored the difficulty many countries face in reversing demographic decline.

Vietnam’s abandonment of its two-child limit signals a new phase in its demographic policy.

The policy is reportedly aiming to encourage higher birthrates amid economic and social challenges tied to an aging population.

However, whether these policy changes and incentives will successfully boost fertility rates remains to be seen.

This is especially as economic pressures and societal preferences continue to influence family planning decisions.

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