Water war brews: India halts Indus flow to Pakistan

India’s federal Home Minister Amit Shah has declared that New Delhi will never reinstate the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty with neighbouring Pakistan.

Speaking to The Times of India on Saturday, June 21, 2025, Shah said that after 26 people were killed in Indian‑administered Kashmir in April – a strike India attributes to Pakistan, New Delhi had already placed its participation in the treaty “in abeyance.”

Now, India intends to reroute the water originally destined for Pakistan into its own territory.

Shah’s bold announcement signals a major re‑alignment of India’s water diplomacy.

He confirmed plans to construct a canal to divert river flows to Rajasthan, India’s northwestern desert state.

“Pakistan will be starved of water that it has been getting unjustifiably,” Shah asserted, equating the previously guaranteed flows to Pakistan as undeserved.

What Is the Indus Waters Treaty?

Negotiated in 1960 and brokered by the World Bank, the Indus Waters Treaty has governed shared usage of six rivers in the Indus basin, the heartbeat of commerce, agriculture, and electric power for both nations.

Under the agreement:

India controls the eastern rivers: Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej.

Pakistan holds rights to the western rivers: Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab.

The treaty allocates about 80 percent of the basin’s flow to Pakistan, which heavily relies on these waters for irrigation, hydropower, and livelihoods.

From Kashmir Tensions to Water Weaponization

Tensions flared in late April after a militant attack in Kashmir killed 26 civilians, an operation India attributes to Pakistan-backed terrorism.

Although Islamabad denied involvement, the incident led to intense military exchanges and the suspension of key bilateral accords, including the Indus Waters Treaty.

Analysts note this shift marks a dramatic escalation: water, long seen as a shared resource, is increasingly weaponized in diplomatic conflict.

Pakistan’s Outcry and Legal Warning

Pakistan’s leadership has uniformly condemned India’s tactic, warning that halting or diverting water would be treated as an act of war.

Foreign Office officials and senators warned the unilateral suspension is illegal under both the treaty and international law.

Former water officials in Islamabad note that the treaty makes no provision for a party to unilaterally suspend or “hold in abeyance” the agreement.

The rights of a lower-riparian nation cannot be overridden, said Pakistan’s federal water minister.

Islamabad is reportedly preparing to challenge the move in international legal forums, citing World Bank arbitration and customary international water law.

Strategic, environmental, and human costs

Pakistan’s dams, already at dangerously low levels, saw immediate decline after India’s treaty suspension.

This jeopardizes its kharif crops, hydropower generation, and farming communities.

Economists warn that a prolonged flow reduction could devastate rural economies in Pakistan and prompt serious socio-political unrest.

Analysts further caution that India’s escalatory stance may invite similarly aggressive responses from other riparian countries, threatening regional cooperation.

Calls for revision, not abolition

Some in India argue the treaty is outdated and unfair, granting Pakistan a disproportionate 79% share despite India’s larger population and upstream position. They advocate for renegotiation, not outright revocation.

Indian political strategist Anuttama Banerji told Al Jazeera that the treaty could be “revised, reviewed and modified” to account for modern challenges like climate change and groundwater stress.

Historic troubled waters

The Indus Waters Treaty has remarkably survived previous wars and border tensions.

It has been a cornerstone of Indo-Pakistani stability for over six decades.

Pakistan’s Senate criticized India’s move as “water terrorism” and suspended the Simla Agreement of 1972, raising fears of a deep spiral into military confrontation.

Looking ahead

India is pushing ahead with planned canal construction and dam adjustments to reroute vital water flows.

Meanwhile, Pakistan is mobilizing domestically and preparing for blockade or legal redress.

International observers warn of a serious threat to global water conflict norms and call for urgent mediation to avoid humanitarian disaster.

With both nations nuclear-armed and tensions already high, the Indus issue may prove to be the next flashpoint between the two rivals.

This is more than geopolitics.

It is a test of international water law and regional stability.

For millions depending on these rivers, water is life—and a potential weapon. The world watches as two powers navigate this critical crisis.

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