Former Kaduna State governor, Nasir El-Rufai, has predicted that the 2027 presidential election will not be decided in the first round and that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu will not make it to the runoff.
Speaking on Channels Television’s Sunday Politics, El-Rufai said his calculations and political analysis show that Tinubu “has no pathway to win” in 2027.
“I was governor of Kaduna state; I was one of Bola Tinubu’s biggest campaigners, but I couldn’t deliver the state to him,” El-Rufai said.
“If you want to engage in self-delusion, you are free to do so. But I tell you very clearly the worst-case scenario in the 2027 elections is that no winner will emerge in the first round.
The electorate may have to go for a runoff, and Bola Tinubu will not be on the ballot for that runoff, because he will, at best, be third in the election.”
“Tinubu Cannot Rely on State Power”
El-Rufai dismissed assumptions that Tinubu could secure re-election through control of state institutions or financial resources.
He drew parallels with the 2015 general elections when then-President Goodluck Jonathan lost despite incumbency advantages.
“He may think, oh, I have money, I have INEC, I have the police, I have the army. Well, President Tinubu, invite ex-President Goodluck Jonathan for a chat and ask him if he didn’t have all this in 2015 and yet, we got him out,” he said.
“Is the case still the same? It’s worse.”
The former governor also rejected the narrative that Tinubu’s political influence remains unshaken, saying his reputation as a “master strategist” is overstated.
“People say Tinubu has never lost an election. That can be contested. He’s a political strategist, yes, but wait. Lessons from 2015 are clear. Power of incumbency is not enough to guarantee victory.”
El-Rufai’s Political Shift
Once a close ally of President Tinubu, El-Rufai is now a vocal critic. After defecting to the African Democratic Congress (ADC) earlier in 2025, he has positioned himself as a leading opposition figure.
Political observers believe his comments signal growing divisions within Nigeria’s ruling elite ahead of the 2027 elections.
With Nigeria’s electoral law requiring a presidential candidate to secure both a majority of votes and at least 25% in two-thirds of the states, analysts agree that a runoff is possible if no clear winner emerges.
El-Rufai’s bold prediction that Tinubu will not make the final ballot adds fresh uncertainty to what is already shaping up to be one of Nigeria’s most contentious elections in recent history.