Iran plays nuclear card after airstrikes

Following recent US-led airstrikes on three of its nuclear facilities, Iran has raised the prospect of exiting the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), as of Sunday, June 22, 2025, citing a legal provision within the treaty itself.

Online media reports suggest that the move would mark a major turning point in global nuclear diplomacy and escalate already heightened tensions in the region.

Abbas Golroo, head of the Iranian Parliament’s Foreign Policy Committee, stated on Sunday via social media platform X that Iran has the legal authority to withdraw from the NPT under Article 10.

According to him, this is in light of what it considers “extraordinary events” threatening its national interests.

The airstrikes on Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan by US forces have been framed by Tehran as a direct attack on its sovereignty and strategic infrastructure.

According to Golroo, Article 10 of the NPT grants member nations the right to pull out of the agreement if “extraordinary events.”

This refers to events connected to the treaty’s subject matter have endangered their supreme national interests.

He argued that the US attacks constitute such an event, thereby justifying Iran’s potential withdrawal from the global nuclear agreement.

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi echoed this sentiment in a separate post, warning that Iran reserves “all options” to defend its sovereignty, interests, and people.

Though no official withdrawal has been initiated yet, these statements strongly suggest Iran is considering the move as a strategic response to military aggression.

What is the NPT?

The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of nuclear weapons (NPT) is a cornerstone of global nuclear security.

Signed on July 1, 1968, and enacted on March 5, 1970, it was the result of negotiations among the United States, the Soviet Union, and the United Kingdom.

Its primary objectives are to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons, promote peaceful nuclear energy, and eventually lead to nuclear disarmament.

The NPT divides the world into two categories: nuclear-weapon states and non-nuclear-weapon states.

Only countries that had manufactured and tested nuclear weapons before January 1, 1967, namely the US, UK, France, China, and Russia – are officially recognized as nuclear-armed under the treaty.

Signatory nations that do not possess nuclear weapons agree not to develop or acquire them.

In return, they are granted access to nuclear technology for peaceful purposes, provided they remain in compliance with International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards and inspections.

Iran’s Case for Withdrawal

Under Article 10 of the NPT, a country may formally exit the treaty by submitting a notice three months in advance to all other parties and to the UN Security Council.

The notification must also include a detailed explanation of the “extraordinary events” the withdrawing nation believes have threatened its core interests.

The exact language of Article 10 states:

“Each Party shall in exercising its national sovereignty have the right to withdraw from the Treaty if it decides that extraordinary events, related to the subject matter of this Treaty, have jeopardized the supreme interests of its country.”

Iran’s potential invocation of this clause comes amid heightened tensions with the West.

This is particularly after the US military, in coordination with Israel, carried out targeted bombings of nuclear facilities that Tehran insists are for peaceful energy purposes.

The strikes are being interpreted by Iran not just as acts of aggression, but as violations of international law and the trust on which the NPT is based.

Global Implications

If Iran proceeds with withdrawal, it could redefine the global nuclear non-proliferation regime and trigger wider instability in the Middle East.

Tehran’s departure would eliminate international oversight of its nuclear activities and potentially clear the way for the development of nuclear weapons, something Iran has long denied intending to pursue.

Furthermore, Iran’s potential exit may influence other non-nuclear nations to reconsider their stance on the treaty, especially if they perceive a failure by the international community to uphold their rights under NPT frameworks.

As international observers await Iran’s next move, the situation remains volatile.

Whether Iran moves forward with the formal three-month withdrawal process or uses the threat as a negotiating tool, its statement has already intensified global anxieties around nuclear proliferation and Middle East stability.

Iran’s possible withdrawal from NPT – Consequences?

Iran’s withdrawal from the NPT would have serious and far-reaching consequences, particularly on the already volatile Israel-Iran crisis.

Here’s how and why:

1. Escalation of Military Tensions

If Iran formally leaves the NPT, it would likely be interpreted by Israel—and its allies, especially the United States—as a clear signal that Iran could pursue nuclear weapons without legal or international oversight. Israel has long considered a nuclear-armed Iran an existential threat, and this move could trigger pre-emptive military strikes or justify further action against Iran’s nuclear infrastructure.

Israel has previously shown a willingness to act unilaterally when it perceives a nuclear threat, as seen in its past airstrikes on nuclear facilities in Iraq (1981) and Syria (2007).

A withdrawal from the NPT could push Israel to escalate military operations or expand regional coordination, including with the US or Gulf states.

2. Collapse of Diplomatic Channels

Iran leaving the NPT would effectively shut down diplomatic options, especially around nuclear negotiations.

The NPT framework has provided a common platform for dialogue and inspections through the IAEA.

Without it, there would be no legal mechanism for monitoring Iran’s nuclear program, severely undermining transparency.

This would likely stall or collapse ongoing backchannel or multilateral efforts (like the revival of the JCPOA nuclear deal), reducing the chances for peaceful resolution and deepening distrust among regional powers and the West.

3. Risk of Regional Nuclear Proliferation

A withdrawal might encourage other Middle Eastern nations to pursue nuclear capabilities, fearing Iran could eventually become a nuclear-armed state.

Countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Egypt have expressed concerns in the past, and Iran’s departure from the treaty could trigger a regional nuclear arms race, further destabilizing the Middle East.

4. Undermining Global Non-Proliferation Norms

The NPT is considered a cornerstone of global nuclear stability.

Iran’s withdrawal would weaken the treaty’s credibility and could set a precedent for other nations to exit when politically convenient.

This not only impacts the Middle East but could also undermine international non-proliferation norms globally, including in volatile regions like the Korean Peninsula or South Asia.

5. Diplomatic Isolation and Economic Fallout

While Iran may gain greater freedom to advance its nuclear program, it would also face intensified international isolation.

The UN Security Council, already critical of Iran’s activities, could impose tougher sanctions or even authorize collective action.

This would worsen Iran’s economic challenges and strain its relationships with countries still willing to engage, like Russia and China.

6. Loss of IAEA Oversight and Increased Uncertainty

Without NPT membership, Iran would no longer be subject to IAEA inspections or safeguards.

The absence of verified information about Iran’s nuclear activities would fuel worst-case assumptions, especially in Israel and the West.

This uncertainty increases the likelihood of miscalculations, proxy conflicts, or direct military confrontation.

In Summary:

Analysts say that Iran’s withdrawal from the NPT would not just be symbolic.

They believe it would also significantly escalate the Israel-Iran crisis, increase the risk of war, destabilize the region, and weaken global nuclear governance.

It would mark a clear pivot away from diplomacy toward confrontation, with grave consequences for regional and international security.

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