Can AI help detect corrupt Nigerian politicians?

By Prince Charles Dickson

So I woke up thinking about The Digital Juju vs. “National Cake” Chopping and in my mind I whispered—Ah, the question hangs in the air like the thick Lagos humidity, heavy with possibility and the faint, familiar scent of… something questionable.

Can Artificial Intelligence, this shiny new oyinbo magic, truly sniff out the cunning “choppers” of Nigeria’s “national cake”? Can algorithms pierce the veil of Panama Papers, phantom contracts, and sudden unexplained wealth that rivals Mansa Musa’s caravan? Well, my friend, grab your akara and if there’s pap, let’s reason together – it’s a story laced with hope, sharp wit, and some hard garri truths.

First, let’s acknowledge the elephant in the room, or rather, the fleet of bulletproof SUVs parked outside the National Assembly: Nigerian political corruption is a sophisticated beast. It’s not just crude stuffing of naira into Ghana-must-go bags anymore (though that still happens, abi?). It’s layered like a well-made jollof rice – offshore accounts, inflated contracts awarded to fronts (“my boy is doing very well”), complex money laundering schemes dancing through multiple banks, and the sheer audacity of lifestyles that scream “How?” louder than a Pentecostal pastor on Sunday. Detecting this requires more than just eagle eyes; it needs the processing power of a thousand EFCC agents hopped on strong coffee.

Enter AI: The Digital Bloodhound with potential, I imagine this powerful tool. A Pattern Recognition Powerhouse. AI can devour mountains of data – procurement records, budget allocations, asset declarations (however…creative they might be), bank transactions, property registries, even news reports and social media chatter. It can spot anomalies invisible to humans: a senator suddenly sponsoring 50 bills after a major contract award in their constituency; a governor whose declared assets remain static while his wife’s boutique chain magically expands into Dubai; a ministry consistently spending 300% over market value for “consultancy fees” on road projects that look like buba after the rain.

Network Mapping Ninja: Corruption rarely works alone. AI can map intricate networks – linking politicians to contractors, shell companies, family members suddenly flush, and even seemingly unrelated businesses. It can expose the “godfatherism” infrastructure digitally, showing how funds flow like illicit palm wine through hidden pipes. Its Predictive Prowess by analyzing historical data, can potentially flag high-risk behaviours or contracts before the deal is sealed. Think of it as an early warning system: “Alert! This contract award process smells like a week-old ponmo left in the sun!”

It can automate the tedious, sifting through thousands of pages of documents? AI can do it in seconds, freeing up human investigators for the complex interrogation and strategic work. No more “the file is missing” excuses that hold more water than a basket.

This sounds like juju, abi? Hold your asho-oke…

Before we crown AI the anti-corruption Messiah, let’s inject some sharp Nigerian reality – the “buts” are as plentiful as potholes on the Benin-Ore road:

Garbage In, Garbage Out” (The Nigerian Edition). AI is only as good as the data it’s fed. Where will this data come from? Reliable, digitized, and accessible public records? Kai!Our data ecosystem is often fragmented, incomplete, deliberately obscured, or simply non-existent. Asset declarations? Many treat them like wedding lists – aspirational fiction. Procurement data? Often buried deeper than crude oil. If the data is “touched” or missing, even the smartest AI becomes like a blind man searching for a black goat in the dark.

The “Man Know Man” Firewall, Nigerian corruption is deeply human, built on complex webs of loyalty, ethnicity, fear, and patronage (“stomach infrastructure” is realpolitik). AI might spot the financial anomaly, but can it understand why a particular contractor must get the job? Can it penetrate the unspoken agreements, the threats, the egunje (bribes) disguised as “community development levies”? The human element – the connections – is a formidable encryption.

The “Oga at the Top” Problem, so controls the AI? Who sets its parameters? Who acts on its findings? If the agency deploying it is itself compromised, or answers to politicians who benefit from the status quo, the AI becomes a very expensive paperweight, or worse, a tool for selective witch-hunts against opponents. Imagine an AI programmed to conveniently overlook certain “big men” while flagging only the small fries. Power, in Nigeria, often seeks to protect itself.

The “Smart Criminals” Factor because our politicians are nothing if not adaptable. If AI flags sudden wealth, they’ll find slower, more complex laundering routes. If it monitors contracts, they’ll create more sophisticated shell companies, perhaps registered in jurisdictions where data is opaque. They’ll hire their own tech experts to find loopholes. It becomes an arms race – silicon versus slippery ingenuity.

The “Wetin Consign Me?” Syndrome is real because ultimately, AI provides evidence or suspicion. It doesn’t make arrests or secure convictions. That requires a robust, independent, and fearless judiciary, law enforcement agencies with integrity, and a political will that’s currently scarcer than stable electricity. No AI can convict a powerful politician shielded by impunity and a broken system.

So, can AI help? Yes, absolutely. It has the potential to be a game-changer, a powerful magnifying glass on the intricate workings of illicit wealth. But it is not a magic wand. It’s a tool, and like any tool, its effectiveness depends entirely on the hands that wield it and the environment it operates in.

Tech is a tool, not a cure, don’t be fooled by Silicon Valley hype. AI won’t solve corruption because corruption isn’t just a technical problem; it’s a deep-seated societal, political, and moral crisis. We must fix the foundations – transparency, accountability, strong institutions, ethical leadership – for AI to have fertile ground to work. As the saying goes, “You don’t use a golden cup to drink dirty water.” Clean the system first.

Data is the New Oil (and needs refining): Nigeria must prioritize creating comprehensive, open, and digitized public data systems. Mandatory, verifiable asset declarations. Transparent, accessible procurement portals. Centralized beneficial ownership registers. Without this fuel, the AI engine sputters and dies. Transparency is the ultimate disinfectant, and data is its carrier.

The Human Element is Irreplaceable: AI can flag anomalies, but humans must investigate motives, navigate complex social terrain, build cases, and demand justice. We need courageous journalists, whistleblowers, activists, judges, and citizens who care. AI empowers them; it doesn’t replace them. “Computers” can show the numbers, but only humans can feel the outrage and demand change.

Vigilance is Eternal: The corrupt will adapt. Any anti-corruption system, AI-powered or not, must be dynamic, constantly updated, fiercely protected from political interference, and backed by unwavering public pressure. Complacency is their greatest ally.

The wit is in the skepticism: A healthy dose of Nigerian skepticism is crucial. Don’t just believe the hype about “AI will save us.” Ask the hard questions: Who owns it? Who feeds it? Who acts on its findings? Trust, but verify – with the sharp eyes of someone who knows a 419 proposal when they see one.

Can AI help detect corrupt Nigerian politicians? Yes, it can. It can shine a powerful, unforgiving light into dark corners. It can process what would take humans lifetimes. It can be a formidable digital bloodhound. But will it lead to fewer corrupt politicians? That depends entirely on us.

AI is a potential catalyst, not the reaction itself. It offers a powerful new weapon, but the war against corruption will still be won or lost on the battlegrounds of political will, institutional integrity, judicial courage, and an empowered citizenry unwilling to tolerate the looting any longer. We must build the systems, demand transparency, and foster the culture where AI’s findings aren’t buried or ignored, but acted upon with the full force of the law.

So, let’s embrace the potential of this digital juju, but keep our feet firmly planted in Nigerian reality. Feed the AI clean data, shield it from “Oga at the Top” syndrome, back its findings with fearless human action, and maybe, just maybe, we can make the “chopping” of our commonwealth far harder, riskier, and ultimately, less profitable. The journey is long, and the road is rough, but as we say, “Slow and steady, no dey carry go quick quick, na im dey win race.” Perhaps AI can help us pick up the pace. The ball, as always, is in our court. Let’s play wisely, so that—Nigeria will win.

Prince Charles Dickson, Ph.D. is the Team Leader of The Tattaaunawa Roundtable Initiative (TRICentre). He is a development & media practitioner, a researcher, policy analyst, public intellect and a teacher.

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