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Coup Threat: Nigerians Blast Military Officials, Say It’s Suicidal
Many Nigerians have been expressing understandable outrage at suggestions that there might be military coup in the country.
One such person is Mr. Jideofor Adibe, a current affairs analyst. In this treatise to Elombah.com, he provided his convictions thus:
It is obvious that despite the current challenges, most Nigerians who were old enough to know what happened during the long period of military rule in Nigeria, will not wish another forward to our inglorious past.
But the tensions and intrigues generated by President Muhammadu Buhari’s illness and absence are raising rumours of a possible military intervention.
The speculation was legitimated when the Chief of Army Staff (CAS), Lt.-Gen. Tukur Buratai, claimed that that there were attempts by politicians to influence his officers and soldiers to carry out acts against their professional calling.
But what are the chances of a coup succeeding in the current climate? The answer is less than five per cent, in my opinion.
Sure, one cannot rule out the possibility that some adventurist soldiers may try their luck, but trying to topple the government will be one thing, succeeding will be another, and being able to consolidate power in the unlikely event of a success, will be another kettle of fish, for various reasons:
One, for those who hope that a military coup can resolve the simmering tension in the land, a coup will exacerbate, not defuse the tension.
The current tension is built around suspicions that a ‘cabal’ around the presidency will not want power to pass on to Vice President Yemi Osinbajo in the event of Buhari not being able to continue.
It is thought that the ‘cabal’ is hiding its interests under the guise of protecting the “North’s turn to produce the president” – a sentiment that will play out well with many people in the North.
In Nigeria’s peculiar mode of allocating privileges, it is believed there is a gentleman’s agreement between the power brokers from the Northern and Southern parts of the country that each bloc will rule for eight years and then allow power to return to the other bloc for its own eight years.
In the eighteen years since the onset of the current civilian dispensation, the South has ruled for 14 years (because Yar’Adua died before completing the North’s turn).
The fear among some in the North is that returning power again to the South without the North completing ‘its turn’ will mean the South enjoying a disproportionate share from the assumed gentleman’s agreement.
But many from the South and supporters of constitutionalism will argue that constitutional provisions on succession supersede any gentleman’s agreement – if such exists.
And hardliners from the South are likely to remind their Northern counterparts of the long period of Northern domination under the military, which “still needs to be balanced”.
In this scenario, a coup led by someone from the North will be resisted in the South while a coup led by someone from the South will be resisted in the North.
Even if such a hypothetical coup was led by someone from a minority ethnic group from the South or Middle Belt, there will be suspicions that such a person is merely the surrogate of certain shadowy power operators.
In this sense, a coup will worsen the problem it will purportedly come to solve. The best way of resolving any crisis remains at the negotiating table, not through the barrels of the gun.
Two, new coup plotters in Sub-Saharan Africa are increasingly finding it difficult to gain acceptance in the continent.
For instance a 2012 study by the African Development Bank found that while there were 99 coup attempts in the sub-continent between 1970 and 1989, the number fell to 67 between 1990 and 2010.
In fact since 2010 there have been far fewer coup attempts in the sub-continent, with most of these being in the Francophone countries.
In recent years, even where the coup-makers managed to succeed in toppling the government such as in Burkina Faso (2012) and Mali (2012), the coup-makers were never allowed to inherit power and were rather humiliated by a combination of domestic and international forces.
In times past, those who succeeded in toppling the government would at most be urged by continental organisations and the international community to “restore constitutional order as soon as possible” – a slap on the wrist that allowed such adventurists to organize sham elections and civilianize their regimes.
Three, related to the above is the changed international environment. During the Cold War era, military coups were part of the proxy wars between the super powers.
The end of the Cold War however ushered in an era of globalization and subsequent attempts to internationalize liberal democracy.
With this, military coups lost their appeal as an activity used by major foreign powers to shape the internal affairs of smaller countries. It can in fact be argued that in Africa no coup can succeed without the support of the country’s former colonial power.
It is in this regard that the remark by the British High Commissioner to Nigeria Paul Arkwright that the United Kingdom would not support any unconstitutional change of power is highly symbolic.
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