Kremlin warns of prolonged conflict in Ukraine, citing historical precedents

Russia’s lead negotiator, Vladimir Medinsky, on Saturday, May 17, 2025, drew a stark historical parallel during the first direct peace talks with Ukraine in three years, held behind closed doors at Istanbul’s Dolmabahçe Palace.

He referenced Peter the Great’s 21-year war against Sweden as a warning, stating that Russia was prepared to continue the war for as long as necessary.

The comparison emphasized Moscow’s readiness for prolonged conflict.

This is just as Tsar Peter I had done in the early 18th century, despite initial failures, conscripting tens of thousands of peasants and ultimately emerging victorious.

Medinsky, addressing Ukrainian negotiators—many in military attire—reportedly declared, “We don’t want war, but we are ready to fight for a year, two, three – as long as it takes.

“We fought with Sweden for 21 years. How long are you ready to fight?”

His remarks echoed Russian President Vladimir Putin’s narrative, rooted in a distorted view of history.

Putin has repeatedly likened his war in Ukraine to Peter the Great’s efforts to reclaim Russian lands.

In 2022, during a visit to an exhibition on the tsar, Putin said Peter “did not take anything from [Sweden], he returned what was Russia’s.”

He also suggested it was Russia’s destiny to do the same.

The Istanbul meeting, expected to be a breakthrough, lasted less than two hours and ended with no progress on Ukraine’s key demand: a ceasefire.

The only tangible result was an agreement to exchange 1,000 prisoners of war.

Russia’s underlying message was clear: capitulate now or face harsher terms later.

This was underscored by Margarita Simonyan, founder of state-controlled RT.

She claimed the Russian delegation warned that if Ukraine did not comply now, Moscow would expand its territorial demands.

Simonyan, founder of state-controlled RT, claimed the territorial demands would go beyond the four currently occupied regions and Crimea to potentially eight regions in the future.

Putin’s confidence is reinforced by Russia’s steady battlefield gains, Europe’s hesitant response, and an economy increasingly structured for a prolonged war.

Economist Vladimir Inozemtsev recently estimated that Russia could sustain its war expenditures for at least another 18 months.

He described the war as Putin’s top priority, with military spending now the central focus of the Russian economy.

Despite the unproductive talks, some saw their mere occurrence as a step forward, given the confusion and delay that preceded them.

Originally set for Wednesday, the talks began a day late after uncertainty about whether they would happen at all.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy initially hesitated to send a delegation, calling Russia’s representatives “theatre props.”

Ultimately, he relented under U.S. pressure, dispatching Defence Minister Rustem Umerov and others on Thursday evening.

Zelenskyy, speaking from Ankara, appeared tense and cautious, aware of the delicate balance required to maintain U.S. support while navigating the erratic influence of Donald Trump.

“Trump’s position is to put pressure on both sides … Step by step, we have demonstrated our readiness for peace,” Zelenskyy said.

“You have to pressurize the side that does not want to end the war,” he added.

Yet Trump undermined the negotiations by asserting that “nothing is going to happen” until he meets with Putin personally.

Rather than condemning Russia for sending a mid-level delegation and stalling negotiations, Trump praised his “good relationship” with Putin.

This was during a Fox News interview, falsely suggesting that Putin was participating in the talks.

Ukraine’s hopes now rest on Trump’s promise to impose sanctions on Russia if a deal is not reached.

However, analysts warn that sanctions alone are unlikely to change the Kremlin’s course.

Kyiv urgently needs increased military support, not just economic pressure.

Meanwhile, the breakdown of talks dealt a blow to Europe’s “coalition of the willing.”

This included the UK, France, Germany, and Poland, whose leaders had stood united with Zelenskyy earlier in the week, calling on Putin to accept a ceasefire or face coordinated sanctions.

By week’s end, there was no ceasefire and no new sanctions.

Their response to the failed talks was limited to a vague commitment to “align our actions.”

In a grim coda, Russia launched a deadly attack on a bus in Ukraine’s Sumy region shortly after the talks concluded.

The attack killed at least nine people and injuring four.

Medinsky again turned to historical justification, telling Russian media, “As Napoleon said, war and negotiations are always conducted at the same time.”

This is supposedly a quote widely believed to be fabricated, reflecting the increasingly propagandistic tone of Moscow’s rhetoric.

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