Nigeria is set to increase its Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) exports as the European Union (EU) moves to ban Russian gas imports beginning January 1, 2027.
The development opens a new opportunity for Africa’s largest gas producer to expand its foothold in the global energy market.
The EU announced on Thursday that it had approved fresh sanctions on Moscow over its ongoing war in Ukraine. The sanctions include a full ban on Russian LNG imports from early 2027, one year ahead of the initial timeline.
Nigeria, already a major LNG exporter with key clients in Europe and Asia, is expected to benefit from the vacuum created by the Russian exit.
Analysts told Reuters that new gas projects in countries like Nigeria, Qatar, and the United States would stabilize the global supply chain and prevent major price shocks once the EU sanctions take effect.
Data from the International Group of Liquefied Natural Gas Importers show that Russia currently supplies about 21 million tons of LNG annually to Europe, with roughly 15.5 million tons covered under long-term contracts.
However, experts predict that new global LNG projects will add at least 161 million tons per annum in export capacity by 2027—more than enough to offset Russia’s shortfall.
Energy strategist Florence Schmit of Rabobank said 2027 would mark a turning point for the global gas market.
“There is enough new LNG export capacity, especially from the US and Qatar, to cover any Russian gap. Nigeria’s growing capacity will further strengthen supply stability,” she said.
The United States, which already accounts for over 50 percent of the EU’s LNG imports, is expected to increase its share to as much as 70 percent by 2027.
Qatar is also expanding its North Field project, which will add about 31 million tons per annum to its capacity.
Nigeria LNG Limited (NLNG), the country’s main gas operator, currently produces 22 million tons of LNG annually.
Its ongoing Train 7 expansion project aims to raise production to around 30 million tons per year when completed.
Nigeria’s key LNG buyers include Spain, Portugal, France, Italy, Turkey, China, and India.
believe the EU’s ban on Russian LNG will redirect global trade flows rather than reduce total supply, with Russia likely to shift its focus to Asian markets.
Arturo Regalado, an analyst with Kpler, explained that “Russia will still export LNG, but the geography of trade will change.
Analysts believe the Europe will lean more on suppliers like Nigeria, while Russia pivots towards Asia.”
However, energy scholars warn that if Asian buyers reject Russian LNG due to sanctions or political concerns, both European and Asian prices could rise slightly.
The EU’s decision follows pressure from the United States, where President Donald Trump has repeatedly urged Europe to end all energy purchases from Moscow.
Since 2022, the EU has cut its dependency on Russian energy by nearly 90 percent but still imported over €11 billion worth of Russian fuel this year.