Nigeria’s democratic crucible: Navigating coalitions and the path to 2027

By Oluwadare Ayeni

The Nigerian political landscape, perpetually a theatre of shifting alliances and ambitions, is currently experiencing a fascinating period of recalibration, largely driven by the interplay between the incumbent All Progressives Congress (APC) and a nascent, yet influential, coalition of opposition forces. This dynamic promises to shape the nation’s trajectory in the coming days, with several key implications already manifesting.

Firstly, the 2023 presidential election starkly underscored a critical reality: no single region in Nigeria possesses the demographic or political heft to unilaterally produce a president without forming strategic alliances across regional lines. This necessity for cross-regional collaboration, a recurring theme in Nigerian politics, is now more pronounced than ever.

Secondly, the surprising outcomes in Lagos during the 2023 elections, where the incumbent governor faced unexpected challenges, suggest a potential erosion of the traditional power of incumbency at the state level. Should this trend persist and replicate in other states, it would undoubtedly inject a healthy dose of competitiveness into Nigerian democracy, shifting the focus from entrenched power to public sentiment.

The 2023 presidential election itself was a watershed moment, particularly with the widespread support former Governor Peter Obi garnered from a significant portion of Nigerian youth. President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s eventual victory, which occurred under circumstances many observers and a considerable segment of the populace deemed controversial and allegedly manipulated by the Independent National Election Commission (INEC), ignited diverse reactions across the country. This outcome, rather than consolidating national unity, deepened existing divisions and fueled a sense of disillusionment among many.

Against this backdrop of a contentious victory, President Tinubu, upon assuming office on May 29, 2023, swiftly embarked on a path that, for many, exacerbated the initial legitimacy challenges. His immediate removal of the fuel subsidy, without a comprehensive and immediate cushioning mechanism to mitigate its effects on ordinary Nigerians, was perceived by many as a critical misstep. While the economic arguments for subsidy removal are debatable, the timing and execution were widely criticized. This decision galvanized a formidable, albeit unlikely, opposition: angry Nigerians reeling from economic hardship, powerful cartels who had long profited from the subsidy, and the existing opposition parties still smarting from their electoral defeat. The convergence of these three disparate groups, all with their distinct grievances, has created a potent force against the government. The fuel subsidy cartels, though largely faceless to the public, are akin to illicit drug syndicates – wealthy, entrenched, and powerful, now actively working to undermine a government that has disrupted their lucrative enterprise.

A fundamental error, from a political strategy standpoint, for a government facing questions of legitimacy, is to inflict immediate and widespread pain on its citizenry. Such a government, many argue, must first earn the trust and support of its people. Prioritizing the defection of governors to the ruling party over implementing policies that directly alleviate the suffering of ordinary Nigerians appears, in retrospect, to be a strategic miscalculation. Gaining genuine popular support should have been the paramount objective.

The emergence of the current political coalition, even if driven by personal ambitions and rivalries, is a positive development for Nigerian democracy. It signifies a robust challenge to the existing power structure and fosters a more competitive political environment. Nigerians, however, find themselves caught in the middle of this intricate power play between the Coalition and the APC.

The longevity of prominent political figures in Nigeria also raises an important question: Is it time for something genuinely new and different? Consider the following tenures:

Bola Ahmed Tinubu:Governor of Lagos State for 8 years (1999-2007).
Atiku Abubakar:Vice President for 8 years (1999-2007).
Rauf Aregbesola:Commissioner for Works in Lagos State for 8 years (1999-2007), Governor of Osun State for 8 years (2010-2018), and Minister for 4 years (2019-2023), totaling 20 years in public office.
Rotimi Amaechi:Speaker of the Rivers State House of Assembly for 8 years (1999-2007), Governor of Rivers State for 8 years (2007-2015), and Minister of Transportation for 8 years (2015-2023), totaling 24 years.
Nyesom Wike: Has been in various government positions for almost 24 years, including Chief of Staff to the Governor of Rivers State (2007-2011), Minister of State for Education (2011-2015), and Governor of Rivers State (2015-2023).
Peter Obi: Governor of Anambra State for 8 years (2006-2014, with some breaks due to re-elections and judicial interventions).

These extensive political careers prompt a national conversation about the need for fresh perspectives and a departure from the entrenched political class.

The implications of the current political permutations are undeniably divisive. Southern Nigeria is fragmented, and Northern Nigeria is similarly split. However, every major political alignment since independence seems to exacerbate divisions within the South. A historical parallel can be drawn to the 1960sgeneral election involving the Northern Peoples Congress (NPC) led by Ahmadu Bello, the National Council of Nigerian Citizens (NCNC) led by Nnamdi Azikiwe, and the Action Group (AG) led by Chief Obafemi Awolowo. After the election, no single party secured enough votes to form a government at the center.

The NPC leadership initially extended an olive branch to Chief Obafemi Awolowo through Chief S.L. Akintola. However, Awolowo famously declined, asserting that “the opposition party is the lifewire of any government.” Subsequently, the NPC forged an alliance with the NCNC, leading to the emergence of Chief Nnamdi Azikiwe as Nigeria’s first President under the parliamentary system. In a more cohesive South, one might have expected the NCNC and AG to unite and produce the President and Prime Minister, respectively. However, the political arrogance of that era prevented such an alliance.

Later, Chief Obafemi Awolowo, seemingly driven by personal ambition, supported General Yakubu Gowon’s administration during the Nigerian Civil War (1967-1970), reportedly with the hope of succeeding Gowon. This pattern of internal strife and “cat-rat” relationships between the East and Western Nigeria resurfaced when the current President, Bola Tinubu, allied with Muhammadu Buhari against Goodluck Jonathan in the struggle that ultimately led to the removal of Jonathan’s government in 2015.

However, a significant shift occurred in the 2023 presidential election: for the first time in recent memory, poverty acted as a unifying force, bringing together many Yoruba and Igbo people in support of Peter Obi’s presidential ambition. His surprising victories in Lagos and several other Yoruba states were a testament to this cross-ethnic solidarity, and as of now, a considerable number of Yorubas continue to support his political aspirations.

The overarching takeaway from the current political climate is that a significant portion of Nigerians are profoundly dissatisfied with President Tinubu’s economic policies, his contentious emergence in 2023, and his perceived overbearing influence on other political parties. To navigate the current political onslaught and secure his administration’s stability, President Tinubu must immediately pivot towards policy modifications that tangibly improve the lives of Nigerians. Prioritizing access to consistent and affordable electricity,affordable housing, fuel, robust security, and essential infrastructure is paramount. These are the fundamental issues that affect all Nigerians, irrespective of their political affiliations.

Consistent and affordable electricity is not merely a convenience but a cornerstone of economic development, driving industrial output, business expansion, and overall productivity. Nigeria’s per capita electricity consumption remains significantly lower than its peers, a major constraint on economic growth and a direct factor in keeping millions in poverty. Similarly, affordable housing is a fundamental human right and a powerful catalyst for social stability and economic empowerment through job creation in the construction sector and improved living standards. The current housing deficit, exacerbated by rapid urbanization, high construction costs, and land bureaucracy, necessitates urgent and strategic intervention.

The administration must also reach out to those Nigerians who feel alienated from both the APC and the nascent opposition coalition, demonstrating a genuine commitment to their welfare. Gaining the trust and support of the citizenry, rather than just political allies, will be the true measure of his government’s success and legitimacy.

To reduce the influence of the opposition coalition and stand a strong chance of winning re-election in 2027, President Tinubu’s administration must go beyond mere political maneuverings and focus on substantive governance. This requires a multi-pronged approach:

1. Deliver Tangible Economic Relief: The most critical factor will be visible and sustained improvement in the economic conditions of average Nigerians. This means not just macroeconomic stability, but a direct impact on their purchasing power. Aggressive policies aimed at controlling inflation, stabilizing the exchange rate, and creating genuine employment opportunities are vital. The promised palliatives and social safety nets, which were largely ineffective post-subsidy removal, must be redesigned and meticulously implemented to reach the most vulnerable.

2. Infrastructure Development with Visible Impact: While long-term projects are important, investing in infrastructure that has an immediate and tangible impact on daily life will be crucial. This includes significant improvements in the supply of consistent and affordable electricity, which directly impacts small businesses and households, as well as addressing road networks that facilitate commerce and reduce transportation costs. The affordable housing initiatives must move beyond conceptualization to actual construction and allocation to deserving citizens.

3. Enhanced Security: The pervasive insecurity across various parts of the country remains a major concern. A significant reduction in banditry, kidnapping, and other forms of violent crime will restore public confidence and allow for economic activities to flourish. This requires not just military action, but also community engagement, intelligence gathering, and addressing the root causes of insecurity.

4. Strengthening Institutions and Good Governance: Perceptions of manipulation and lack of transparency undermine legitimacy. The administration must demonstrate a genuine commitment to strengthening democratic institutions, particularly INEC, ensuring its independence and transparency. Combating corruption, especially within government agencies responsible for public services, will be critical to rebuilding trust. Visible prosecution of corrupt officials, regardless of political affiliation, would send a strong message.

5. Strategic Communication and Engagement: The government needs to actively and transparently communicate its policies, their rationale, and their expected benefits to the populace. This involves regular town halls, engaging with diverse civil society groups, and utilizing both traditional and social media effectively to counter misinformation and explain ongoing reforms. Acknowledging the hardships faced by Nigerians and demonstrating empathy can go a long way in managing public perception.

6. Political Inclusivity and Reconciliation: While defections to the APC may seem like a short-term gain, genuine political stability comes from broad-based inclusivity. President Tinubu should extend an olive branch to credible opposition figures and groups, not necessarily to co-opt them, but to engage in constructive dialogue on national development. Addressing perceived marginalization and fostering a sense of belonging among all regions and ethnic groups will dilute the “us vs. them” narrative that fuels coalitions.

7. Youth Engagement and Empowerment:The significant youth support for Peter Obi in 2023 was a clear signal. President Tinubu must develop and implement concrete policies that address youth unemployment, provide quality education, and foster innovation and entrepreneurship. Investing in digital skills, supporting startups, and creating an enabling environment for youth to thrive economically will be paramount to winning their allegiance.

By focusing on these areas – tangible economic relief, critical infrastructure development, enhanced security, institutional strengthening, effective communication, and genuine inclusivity – President Tinubu can hope to not only mitigate the influence of the emerging opposition coalition but also build a foundation of public trust and support that could pave his way to a second term in 2027. His political prowess, previously demonstrated in Lagos, now faces its greatest test on the national stage, requiring a fundamental shift towards people-centric governance.

Oluwadare Ayeni
Associate Professor of Public Governance at Obafemi Awolowo University

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