A new report by global consulting firm PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) has projected that as many as 141 million Nigerians may be living below the poverty line by 2026, raising fresh concerns about the country’s economic direction ahead of the 2027 general elections.
The projection is contained in PwC’s Nigeria Economic Outlook 2026, titled Turning Macroeconomic Stability into Sustainable Growth.
According to the report, Nigeria’s poverty rate is expected to climb to 62 per cent of the population by 2026, driven by persistently high living costs, weak income growth and rising food prices.
PwC noted that while the Federal Government has rolled out several economic reforms aimed at stabilising the economy, the impact of these measures has yet to translate into meaningful relief for most households.
“Poverty is projected to rise to 62 per cent, representing about 141 million people by 2026, reflecting weak real income growth and lingering inflationary pressures,” the report stated.
The firm explained that the majority of Nigerians are unlikely to experience wage or income increases sufficient to keep pace with the rising cost of living.
Although inflation is expected to moderate gradually, PwC warned that structural weaknesses in the economy would continue to keep prices of basic goods high.
A key driver of worsening poverty, the report said, is the spending pattern of low-income households.
Food accounts for as much as 70 per cent of total expenditure among poorer Nigerians, leaving them particularly vulnerable to food price shocks.
With food inflation still elevated, PwC said low-income households are bearing the brunt of economic pressures.
Even if headline inflation eases, the firm warned that high energy costs, transportation expenses and the impact of a weak naira would continue to push up the prices of food and essential goods.
Economic analysts have cautioned that rising poverty levels could pose serious risks to Nigeria’s broader economy.
As more households struggle to meet basic needs, consumer spending is likely to weaken, potentially slowing economic growth, reducing productivity and increasing pressure on public finances.
PwC stressed that efforts to reverse the poverty trend may fail without strong job creation, improved productivity and more effective social protection programmes.
The firm observed that unemployment and underemployment remain widespread, while existing welfare schemes are not reaching enough vulnerable Nigerians.
In an earlier 2025 assessment, PwC had warned that inflation, high interest rates and currency depreciation could push an additional 13 million Nigerians below the national poverty line.
To mitigate the situation, the firm recommended policy consistency, improved food supply systems and increased investment in agriculture, storage facilities and transport infrastructure. PwC said these measures could help lower food prices and ease pressure on household budgets over time.
The PwC outlook aligns closely with projections by the World Bank.
In its Nigeria Development Update, the World Bank also forecast that Nigeria’s poverty rate would peak at 62 per cent in 2026, affecting roughly 141 million people.
However, the World Bank projected a marginal improvement in 2027, with poverty expected to decline slightly to 61 per cent, or about 140 million people.
If realised, this would mark the first reduction in Nigeria’s poverty rate in nearly a decade.
Despite this tentative optimism, the World Bank cautioned that any improvement would be modest.
It noted that slow economic growth and continued food price pressures would keep many Nigerians, particularly those in rural and northern regions, under severe financial strain.
Data from the Nigeria Living Standards Survey underscore the scale of the challenge.
In 2018/2019, about 40 per cent of Nigerians roughly 81 million people were living in poverty.
By 2022/2023, that figure had risen sharply to 56 per cent, or 113 million people.
The World Bank said that between 2019 and 2023, average consumption per person declined by about seven per cent, with urban residents hit hardest.
Falling incomes, weak growth and high inflation were cited as key factors behind the surge in poverty during the period.
By 2025, an estimated 139 million Nigerians were already living below the poverty line, with the number expected to increase further in 2026 before any potential easing.
The Federal Government has, however, questioned the credibility of the figures. The President’s Special Adviser on Media and Public Communication, Sunday Dare, described the poverty estimates as “unrealistic,” arguing that they should be better contextualised within global poverty measurement standards.
Despite official pushback, the projections have intensified debate about Nigeria’s economic trajectory, the effectiveness of current reforms and the urgency of policies that directly address rising living costs and job creation for millions of Nigerians.
