Russia and Ukraine to hold first peace talks in three years amid low expectations

Russia and Ukraine are set to engage in their first direct peace negotiations in over three years on Friday, May 16, 2025, with both delegations gathering in Istanbul, Turkey, for talks brokered by the Turkish government.

However, both officials and international observers are warning that the meeting is unlikely to lead to any immediate breakthrough in ending the war, which has now dragged on for more than three years.

Ukraine’s delegation will be led by Defense Minister Rustem Umerov.

The Russian side will be headed by Vladimir Medinsky, a presidential aide and a figure considered relatively low in diplomatic rank.

The discrepancy in the seniority of the two delegations has already raised concerns about the seriousness of Moscow’s commitment to the peace process.

Tensions were evident even before the talks began.

On Thursday, Russian President Vladimir Putin declined a direct invitation from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to meet face-to-face.

This move reportedly dampened hopes for any significant diplomatic progress.

Further complicating matters, the two delegations initially arrived in different Turkish cities, underscoring the lack of coordination and mutual understanding.

Expectations for a potential meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy are reportedly, already limited.

However, the absence of even preliminary signs of progress has frustrated efforts to use the Istanbul talks as a launchpad for a broader peace settlement.

The two nations remain deeply divided over the terms required to end the conflict.

Also, despite international pressure, there seems to be little movement toward compromise.

On Thursday, U.S. President Donald Trump, speaking during a visit to the Middle East, said that a direct meeting between himself and Putin would be essential to breaking the deadlock.

Trump’s remarks come amid mounting efforts by U.S. and European diplomats to push for a ceasefire agreement.

Ukraine has reportedly agreed to a ceasefire proposal backed by the United States and Europe that would initiate a full 30-day halt in hostilities.

However, Russia has effectively dismissed the idea by attaching sweeping conditions that Ukraine and its allies view as unacceptable.

At the same time, Ukrainian officials and Western military analysts warn that Russian forces are preparing for a renewed military offensive.

The looming threat of further violence adds urgency to the negotiations, though it also underscores the difficulty in reaching a peaceful resolution under current conditions.

Zelenskyy, reacting to Putin’s refusal to meet in person, criticized Russia’s apparent lack of commitment.

He referred to the Russian delegation as nothing more than “a theater prop.”

Despite his frustration, the Ukrainian leader affirmed his decision to send a serious negotiating team, led by Umerov, to Istanbul on Friday.

Zelenskyy emphasized that this move is intended to demonstrate Ukraine’s genuine commitment to peace, particularly to international partners like the United States.

The Kremlin has confirmed that its delegation will include three senior officials alongside Medinsky, and four lower-ranking individuals designated as “experts.”

The composition of the team suggests a limited scope for decision-making or meaningful compromise during the talks.

Meanwhile, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced that he would be meeting with Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and the Ukrainian delegation in Istanbul on Friday.

Rubio also noted that members of the U.S. team would engage separately with the Russian representatives.

He cautioned against expecting major developments from the initial round of discussions.

“We don’t have high expectations of what will happen tomorrow,” Rubio stated on Thursday while speaking to the press in Antalya, Turkey.

“And frankly, at this point, I think it’s abundantly clear that the only way we’re going to have a breakthrough here is between President Trump and President Putin.”

While the talks proceed in Istanbul, President Zelenskyy is expected to travel to Albania on Friday to participate in a summit of European political leaders.

His continued diplomatic outreach underscores Ukraine’s broader effort to build international pressure on Russia.

It is also supposedly to ensure that Kyiv is seen as proactively pursuing peace, despite ongoing aggression.

In summary, analysts say that while the Istanbul meeting marks a rare instance of direct communication between Russia and Ukraine, the prospects for any immediate resolution appear slim.

The sharp divide in demands, symbolic snubs, and ongoing military preparations reflect a peace process still stalled by deep mistrust and unresolved geopolitical tensions.

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