Trump Claims NATO Victory—But Will Allies Really Pay Up?

U.S. President Donald Trump concluded his whirlwind visit to the 2025 NATO summit on Wednesday, June 25, 2025, with a resounding declaration of victory, claiming credit for a sweeping agreement.

This agreement according to online media reports, will see most NATO members increase their defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035, a dramatic escalation from previous targets and a long-standing Trump demand.

After just under 24 hours in the Netherlands, Trump returned to Washington projecting confidence.

“This is a monumental win for the United States, for Europe, and for Western civilization,” he said in a closing press conference at The Hague.

“They’ve finally listened.”

The shift marked a rare diplomatic high point for Trump on the international stage.

The tone at this year’s summit was markedly warmer than during his first term, when his criticism of NATO allies, and occasional off-script remarks, created friction.

This time, Trump received royal hospitality, staying overnight at the Danish king’s palace.

Even Dutch Prime Minister Dick Schoof jokingly referred to Trump as “Daddy” during their bilateral meeting.

Despite the pageantry, policy was front and center.

Trump secured what he called “a big win” as 31 out of 32 NATO members endorsed the new defense spending target.

Only Spain opted out, citing economic constraints.

Trump, visibly annoyed, suggested he’d retaliate economically, saying Spain “will have to pay us back on trade.”

Although his comments raised eyebrows since individual EU countries don’t negotiate their own trade deals.

The summit’s final statement formalized the 5% pledge and included a 2029 review clause to assess whether members are on track and to reevaluate the threat posed by Russia.

For Trump, who has pushed for higher defense commitments since 2017, even once floating 4% as an aspirational goal, the agreement represents a personal vindication.

Yet skepticism lingers. Analysts point out that many NATO nations already struggle to meet the existing 2% target, and achieving 5% will require enormous political will and financial sacrifice.

Still, Trump portrayed the commitment as urgent and necessary, especially as the war in Ukraine grinds into its fourth year.

In a notable shift in tone from earlier comments, Trump also reaffirmed U.S. support for NATO’s cornerstone principle, Article 5 — the mutual defense clause.

“I stand with it. That’s why I’m here,” he said, walking back his remarks from the previous day, when he mused that it “depends on your definition.”

Even so, questions remain about Trump’s long-term commitment.

New Hampshire Senator Jeanne Shaheen, a Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee attending the summit, noted that several allies privately expressed concern over Trump’s unpredictable stance.

“They remember what he said in 2016 and what he’s said since,” she told reporters.

In the background of the summit loomed rising global instability.

Trump’s appearance came just days after the U.S. launched controversial airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites.

A U.S. intelligence report, leaked this week, suggested the attacks delayed but did not cripple Iran’s program.

Trump disputed that claim, saying the strike had “ended the war,” and likened it to the end of World War II. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth promised an investigation into the leak.

On Wednesday, Trump also held private meetings with key leaders, including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

While the meeting was closed to the press, Trump later described it as “good,” with both sides discussing military aid and strategies for peace in Ukraine.

Though the road ahead remains uncertain, Trump leaves the 2025 NATO summit with a tangible policy achievement.

He also leaves a more unified — if wary — alliance behind him. Whether that unity holds in the face of rising global tensions and political divisions remains to be seen.

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