UK suspects France will delay recognizing Palestine under Macron

British officials, on Saturday, May 17, 2025, expressed skepticism about French President Emmanuel Macron’s suggestion that France may recognize a Palestinian state next month.

Analysts have said that if this move happens, would make France the first G7 country to do so.

This skepticism may influence whether the UK follows suit.

Macron had indicated in April that France was considering recognition as part of a broader diplomatic initiative at a United Nations conference on the two-state solution, set to take place in New York from June 2–4.

The event will be co-chaired by France and Saudi Arabia.

Despite Macron’s statements, Israel has already cautioned France that recognizing Palestine would be perceived as a reward to Hamas.

In response, France has attempted to strengthen a reformed Palestinian Authority as a viable governing body for Gaza.

This is supposedly in hopes of deflecting criticism and promoting a constructive framework.

UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy acknowledged in Parliament that conversations with France regarding recognition are ongoing.

However, he made clear that the UK would not support a purely symbolic gesture without tangible outcomes.

British officials, who note France has debated this step for over a decade, increasingly believe Macron will conclude that the conditions are still not right.

The UK has long maintained that it supports Palestinian statehood.

However, it insists it will recognize it only at the moment of “maximum impact”, a term it has never clearly defined.

Still, internal and external pressures are mounting.

British frustration with Israel’s blockade of humanitarian aid into Gaza, combined with growing discontent among Labour backbenchers, is putting pressure on the Foreign Office to take a stronger stance.

This week, Middle East Minister Hamish Falconer had to defend the UK government’s legal stance in Parliament.

Government lawyers had argued in the High Court that there is no genocide occurring in Gaza, nor targeted attacks on women and children by Israel.

Conservative MP Edward Leigh challenged this reasoning, questioning the moral basis of such conclusions and asking, “When is genocide not genocide?”

Adding to the controversy, Palestinian human rights organization Al-Haq is seeking a judicial review of the UK’s decision to continue supplying components for F-35 fighter jets.

These jets, part of a multinational program largely controlled by the United States, may end up in Israeli hands for use in Gaza.

In court, a Ministry of Defence official submitted a redacted 11-page document stating that the UK cannot unilaterally stop these parts from being transferred to Israel without consensus from the program’s partners.

Labour defends its policy on Palestine by citing the suspension of certain arms exports to Israel announced in September.

However, newly released data complicates this narrative.

Between October and December 2024, the UK approved $169 million worth of military exports to Israel.

These included items such as military aircraft, radar systems, targeting equipment, and explosive devices.

This three-month figure exceeds the total value of arms exports approved during the last three years under the Conservative government.

The Department for Business and Trade explained that most of these licences were for components to be used in military equipment made in Israel but destined for third countries, including NATO allies.

Nonetheless, all applications, it said, are assessed case-by-case based on strict criteria.

The broader political context ties back to the UK’s and France’s potential recognition of Palestine.

Ministers are under pressure to demonstrate practical opposition to Israel’s tactics in Gaza.

Also, support for recognition is increasingly seen as one such step.

The upcoming UN conference was prompted by a General Assembly resolution.

It followed a July 2024 advisory opinion from the International Court of Justice (ICJ), which ruled the Israeli occupation unlawful.

A September 2024 resolution set a 12-month timeline for action based on that ICJ ruling.

France has a history of approaching recognition but ultimately pulling back, citing poor timing or a lack of international consensus.

Macron’s most recent statement in April suggested that France was moving in that direction: “We must move towards recognition, and we will do so in the coming months.”

However, he emphasized a need for a coordinated international effort, one that includes recognition of Israel by pro-Palestinian states, many of which still do not.

Michel Duclos, a senior fellow at the Institut Montaigne, commented that opinions within Macron’s circle vary widely.

He also stated that if Macron is waiting on Saudi Arabia to recognize Israel as part of the deal, he may be waiting indefinitely.

Saudi Arabia’s foreign ministry again accused Israel of genocide this week and has shown no signs of moving toward normalization.

Within Europe, only a few countries – Spain, Ireland, Sweden, Slovenia, and Norway, have recognized Palestine.

In April 2024, the U.S. vetoed a UN resolution for Palestinian statehood, with the UK abstaining and France voting in favor.

Meanwhile, an article in Le Monde by French politicians and intellectuals this week urged Macron to follow through on recognition, calling it a “moral imperative, a political necessity, a strategic requirement.”

They argued it’s the only way for France to resolve what they described as a diplomatic contradiction: advocating for a two-state solution while refusing to acknowledge one of the states.

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