Why Atiku can’t become the ADC flag bearer in 2027 

By Somadina Muojeke

Taking a cue from the All Progressives Congress (APC) Primaries held at Lagos in December 2014 from which Gen Muhammadu Buhari emerged as the party’s flag bearer ahead of the 2015 general elections, we have presented the factors that made the opposition coalition leaders dump Atiku Abubakar, former Vice President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria and opted for Buhari, former Military Head of State instead despite his lack of political gravitas to win the APC primary in a broad-based 2014 APC coalition against incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan of the PDP

The APC as a political party was registered in February 2013 as a merger aimed at creating a strong opposition coalition to challenge the then-ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) in the 2015 general elections. The flag bearer of the APC would have to emerge in national convention to be held in December 2014

The main candidates looking to contest included: Muhammadu Buhari (Former Military Head of State, CPC, NW), Atiku Abubakar (Former Vice President, nPDP, NE), Rabiu Kwankwaso (Governor of Kano State, nPDP, NW) and Rochas Okorocha (Governor of Imo State, APGA, SE)

Buhari did not have the political spread to win the party primaries in the APC coalition with multi regional and multi party interests such as CPC (NW), ANPP (NE), ACN (SW), APGA(SE) and nPDP (NW+NE+SS+NC). Even though Buhari’s stronghold was in the North where he controlled majority of the general voters, there were two other key contenders namely Atiku and Kwankwaso from the North who controlled significant blocs of Northern delegates who Buhari must contend in a party primary. The deciders of this were going to be Southern power blocs in the coalition such as those led by Bola Tinubu and Chibuike Amaechi. They were not considering a Southerner to replace Jonathan so they were not likely to throw their weights behind Rochas Okorocha

Going into the Lagos 2014 APC national convention:

CPC led by Muhammadu Buhari had no incumbent Governors, 7 Senators and about 20 House of Reps members

ACN led by Bola Tinubu had 4 incumbent Governors, 20 Senators and about 90 House of Reps members. Lagos (Babatunde Fashola, SW), Ekiti Kayode Fayemi, SW), Osun (Rauf Aregbesola, SW) and Ogun (Ibikunle Amosun, SW)

ANPP led by Ogbonnaya Onu had 2 incumbent Governors, 10 Senators and about 25 House of Reps members. Borno (Kashim Shettima, NE) and Yobe (Ibrahim Gaidam, NE)

APGA led by Rochas Okorocha had 1 incumbent Governor, 1 Senator and 1 House of Reps member. Imo (Rochas Okorocha, SE)

nPDP led by Kawu Baraje had 5 incumbent Governors, 15 Senators and about 40 House of Reps members. Rivers (Chibuike Amaechi, SS), Kwara (Abdulfatah Ahmed, NC), Sokoto (Aliyu Wamakko, NW), Adamawa (Murtala Nyako, NE) and Kano (Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, NW)

Only the nPDP had the spread and control of strategic states required to dominate the coalition in a national convention followed by the ACN who lacked national spread and concentrated within the South West.

Notwithstanding the political strength of the candidates in a primary within the coalition, the reality is that a candidate with a cult-like following was needed for an opposition coalition such as the APC to dislodge Goodluck Jonathan of the PDP in 2015

The unreconcilable interests from nPDP would sabotage the two candidates from that group: Atiku and Kwankwaso. While Kwankwaso dominated Kano, Buhari was largely preferred in the North West in a general election and while Atiku was influential in Adamawa, the ANPP and a section of the CPC had a firmer grip on the popular voters in the North East. Other figures such as Bukola Saraki and Chibuike Amaechi also had interests and were serious about removing Jonathan in 2015

The contending candidates in the APC 2014 primaries had major power blocs within the APC and given the reality that to remove an incumbent President with access to state resources in Nigeria, a candidate with a massive cult-like in at least two regions is required to be backed by politicians, a consensus was reached by some among the power blocs in favour of Muhammadu Buhari who lacked the intra-party political gravitas to win a primary.

Buhari was adopted and supported by Bola Ahmed Tinubu (ACN leader delivering Southwest delegate bloc), Rotimi Amaechi (Rivers Governor, key nPDP defector, delivering South South and some North Central delegate bloc. He was Buhari’s Campaign DG), Ogbonnaya Onu (Former Abia Governor and ANPP Chairman who aligned ANPP and some North East and South East delegates behind Buhari), Bukola Saraki (Former Kwara Governor and influential nPDP senator who mobilized North Central support), Nasir El-Rufai (Former FCT Minister and coalition strategist ), Tunde Bakare (Former VP candidate) and CPC faction (Buhari’s base delivering most North West and some North East delegates).

In the end, over 5419 delegates participated in the APC primaries and voted as follows:
Muhammadu Buhari: 3,430
Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso: 974
Atiku Abubakar: 954
Rochas Okorocha: 624
Nda Isaiah: 16
Invalid votes: 10

Keeping in mind that:

The key nPDP politicians who joined the APC in 2014 were Atiku Abubakar (Adamawa, NE, Former Vice President), Bukola Saraki (Kwara, NC, Senator & Former Governor), Chibuike Amaechi (Rivers, SS, Governor), Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso (Kano, NW, Governor & Former Senator), Aliyu Wamakko (Sokoto, NW, Governor & Former Senator), Abdulfatah Ahmed (Kwara, NC, Governor), Murtala Nyako (Adamawa, NE, Governor & Former Chief of Naval Staff), and Kawu Baraje (Kwara, NC, Former PDP National Chairman).

The key CPC politicians were Muhammadu Buhari (Katsina, NW, Former Head of State), Buba Marwa (Adamawa, NE, Former Military Administrator), Hadi Sirika (Katsina, NW, Senator), Nasir El-Rufai (Kaduna, NW, Former Minister), Suleiman Abdurrahman Kawu Sumaila (Kano, NW, Former Member, House of Reps), Abubakar Malami (Kebbi, NW, Lawyer & CPC Legal Adviser).

The key ACN politicians were Bola Ahmed Tinubu (Lagos, SW, Former Governor), Babatunde Fashola (Lagos, SW, Governor), Lai Mohammed (Kwara, NC, National Publicity Secretary of ACN), Kayode Fayemi (Ekiti, SW, Governor), Rauf Aregbesola (Osun, SW, Governor), Niyi Adebayo (Ekiti, SW, Former Governor), Ibikunle Amosun (Ogun, SW, Governor & Senator), Tom Ikimi (Edo, SS, Former Minister), Audu Ogbeh (Benue, NC, Former PDP National Chairman), Tony Momoh (Edo, SS, Former Minister of Information).

The key ANPP politicians were Ogbonnaya Onu (Ebonyi, SE, Former Governor & ANPP National Chairman), Ibrahim Shekarau (Kano, NW, Former Governor), Kashim Shettima (Borno, NE, Governor), Ahmed Sani Yerima (Zamfara, NW, Senator & Former Governor), Modu Sheriff (Borno, NE, Former Governor), Muhammad Ndume (Borno, NE, Senator), Kabiru Gaya (Kano, NW, Senator & Former Governor), Abdullahi Adamu (Nasarawa, NC, Senator & Former Governor).

The key APGA politicians were Rochas Okorocha (Imo, SE, Governor), Uche Nwosu (Imo, SE, Chief of Staff to the Governor), George Muoghalu (Anambra, SE, APGA Chieftain), Martin Agbaso (Imo, SE, Former Governorship Candidate), Ifeanyi Ararume (Imo, SE, Former Senator), Osita Izunaso (Imo, SE, Former Senator).

From the above list of key politicians and their political parties at the time, it could be deduced that ACN, ANPP, and CPC were united behind one interest and candidate (Pro-Buhari) whereas nPDP despite having the most political capital, serving governors, control of key states and national spread coming into the APC coalition; they had three different interests namely Atiku, Kwankwaso and Pro-Buhari elements from within. The nPDP lost and those who staked based on the reality needed to remove Jonathan won and they now control the politics of Nigeria from 2015 till 2027

If the ADC merger is aimed at creating a strong opposition coalition to challenge and dislodge Bola Tinubu of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) in the upcoming 2027 general elections, then the constituent power blocs must present a candidate with a cult-like following that overwhelms at least 2 geopolitical zones backed by other power blocs within the ADC that has firm control of voters in the other geopolitical zones especially in those zones where the candidate may have a high barrier of political entry. If they opt in for a candidate just because that candidate has the spending capacity to win a party primary at the ADC national convention, the coalition’s chances at 2027 will be significantly threatened and the Opposition would start grappling with the idea of having APC as the ruling party till 2031 and Nigeria then fully becomes a one-party state under the APC.

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