European Climate Service: 2024 certain for ‘World’s Warmest Year’ on record

The European Climate Service has projected the certainty of 2024 to be the world’s warmest year on record.

According to the Diaspora Digital Media (DDM), the climate service issued a statement declaring that, with a high degree of confidence, 2024 is poised to become the warmest year globally, surpassing previous records.

“The assertion is supported by the year’s exceptional climate patterns, marked by severe heatwaves and devastating storms.”

According to preliminary data, global average temperatures for 2024 are projected to exceed pre-industrial levels by more than 1.5°C.

If confirmed, this would mark the first calendar year to surpass the threshold, signifying a significant milestone in the context of climate change.

“The prevailing high temperatures are largely driven by human-induced climate change, supplemented by minor influences from natural factors, including the El Niño phenomenon.”

As reported by BBC, scientists emphasize that the latest findings should serve as a critical warning ahead of the upcoming 29th Conference of the Parties (COP29) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, scheduled to take place in Azerbaijan next week.

The Chief Executive of the Royal Meteorological Society, Liz Bentley stated that “the latest record serves as a pressing reminder to governments convening at COP29 of the imperative to take swift and decisive action to mitigate further global warming.”

According to reports, global temperatures during the initial ten months of 2024 have been exceptionally elevated, rendering it highly unlikely that the year will not establish a new record.

In addition, data from the European Copernicus Climate Change Service, 2024 is projected to exceed pre-industrial temperature levels by a minimum of 1.55°C, indicating a continued trend of significant global warming.

“The term ‘pre-industrial’ denotes the reference period of 1850-1900, a baseline era preceding substantial human-induced global warming, specifically the widespread burning of fossil fuels and corresponding greenhouse gas emissions that significantly altered the Earth’s climate.”

The 2024 temperature projection indicates a potential exceedance of the existing record of 1.48°C, established in 2023, suggesting a continued upward trend in global temperatures.

“According to the Deputy Director of Copernicus, Samantha Burgess, “the achievement signifies a notable milestone in the history of global temperature records, underscoring the continued trend of rising temperatures.”

According to Copernicus data, the bar chart illustrates a steady increase in global average annual temperatures from 1940 to 2024, with 2024 exhibiting the highest recorded temperature of 1.55°C, based on provisional estimates.

Notably, this marks the first calendar year to surpass 1.5°C of global warming.

“The surpassing of the 1.5°C threshold holds significant symbolic importance, as it exceeds the ambitious temperature limit set by nearly 200 countries under the Paris Agreement (2015).

“Exceeding the 1.5°C threshold does not necessarily indicate a failure to meet the Paris Agreement’s objective.

“The accord’s goal is based on a long-term average global temperature increase over a 20-year period, which accounts for natural variability and internal climate variability,” the climate service stated.

“Each year-long breach of the 1.5°C threshold incrementally increases the likelihood of surpassing this limit in the long term.”

According to the United Nations, current policies may lead to global warming exceeding 3°C by the end of the century, underscoring the urgent need for enhanced climate mitigation efforts.

“The 2024 climate profile raises concerns, particularly due to the influence of the El Niño weather pattern.”

The 2023-2024 El Niño event, characterized by unusually warm surface waters in the eastern tropical Pacific, contributed to elevated global temperatures in early 2024.

According to Copernicus data, daily global average temperatures have consistently broken records for this time of year.

Historical temperature trends (1940-2022) illustrate the anomaly of 2023 and 2024, with both years exceeding previous records for most days.

“Although La Niña’s anticipated development may temporarily decrease global temperatures in 2025, rising greenhouse gas levels suggest new records are imminent.”

Climate scientists, such as Prof. Ed Hawkins of the University of Reading, emphasize the urgency of stabilizing global temperatures through net-zero emissions to mitigate intensified storms, heatwaves, and extreme rainfall.

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