Japan Faces Population Collapse as Deaths Outpace Births

Japan’s decades-long population decline is accelerating, threatening the country’s pension, health care, and social infrastructure systems, which are already strained by a shrinking workforce.

According to newly released government data, the number of births in 2024 fell to just 687,689  the lowest since records began in 1968  while deaths surged to nearly 1.6 million, the highest on record.

The proportion of elderly residents now makes up nearly 30% of Japan’s population, while the working-age group (15 to 64 years old) has dropped to 59%, far below the global average of 65%, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

A Crisis Decades in the Making

Japan’s population decline has been driven by a persistently low fertility rate since the 1970s.

Experts say the problem has no quick fix  even if the birth rate rose sharply today, the population would still shrink for decades until the balance between young and old stabilizes.

The government has spent more than ten years trying to reverse the trend, offering childbirth and housing subsidies, encouraging paternity leave, and improving childcare services.

Yet, each year, fewer babies are born and more deaths are recorded, deepening the demographic crisis.

Why Fewer Japanese Are Having Children

High living costs, stagnant wages, limited housing space, and a demanding work culture are among the top reasons fewer Japanese are choosing to marry or have children.

For women, the challenge goes beyond economics.

Despite policy changes, Japan remains a patriarchal society where married women are often expected to be the primary caregivers.

Single parenthood is far less common than in Western nations, and cultural norms discourage non-traditional family structures.

Other East Asian nations, including China and South Korea, face similar population challenges, but Japan’s aging society is among the most severe in the world.

Immigration as a Possible Solution

Some experts say Japan could slow its population decline by opening its doors to more immigrants.

This remains controversial in a country that sees itself as ethnically homogeneous, and where foreign residents have long reported xenophobia and discrimination.

Still, the government is cautiously shifting its immigration policy, introducing a digital nomad visa and programs to upskill foreign workers.

These measures may be working  the number of foreign residents rose more than 10% in 2024 to a record 3.6 million.

Government projections revised in 2023 estimate Japan’s population will drop by 30% by 2070, but the pace of decline could slow slightly due to increased international migration

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