As US and India dey line up for Trump second administration, China fit dey targeted

Days afta Donald Trump electoral win send shock waves of concern through Europe and Asia, India top diplomat seem to mock di response, as dem dey express confidence say dem fit navigate di US president-elect approach to foreign relations.

Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar talk say many countries fit dey nervous, but “India no be one of dem”.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi congratulations, Jaishankar talk, dey “among di first three calls, I think, wey President Trump take”.

Several of di nominees wey Trump announce last week – Senator Marco Rubio for US secretary of state, Representative Mike Waltz for national security adviser, and former representative Tulsi Gabbard for director of national intelligence – don staunchly support stronger relations with India as part of di US strategy to counter China for di Indo-Pacific.

While some analysts argue say Trump “America First” policy fit impede deeper cooperation in tech and trade with India, odas contend say India likely get beta chance to strike favourable deal with Trump than China.

Either way, di new team likely go shift di US strategic focus, dey place less emphasis on human rights and India relationship with Russia.

Under di outgoing President Joe Biden, di US work to strengthen ties with New Delhi as counter balance to China, while dem dey press Modi on him civil liberties record.

Di new approach fit prioritise oda concerns, dey alter dat balance.

“E come turn out say di overall mix dey very favourable to India,” talk Sarang Shidore, director of di Global South programme for di Quincy Institute for Washington, dey cite di more pro-India and anti-China stance wey several of Trump cabinet nominees voice.

For July, Rubio introduce di US-India Defence Cooperation Act, legislation wey intend to elevate India strategic status and grant am access to advanced US military technology, on par with close allies like Japan, Israel, South Korea and Nato partners.

“Communist China continue to aggressively expand its domain for di Indo-Pacific region, all while e dey seek to impede di sovereignty and autonomy of our regional partners,” Rubio talk for statement wey announce di bill.

US Senator Marco Rubio dey campaign rally for Donald Trump for Doral, Florida, on July 9

For September, China and India announce consensus to take disengage dia troops for dia long-standing Himalayan border dispute, wey lead to deadly clashes for 2021.

Di deal help clear di way for di first formal meeting between Chinese president Xi Jinping and Modi in four years.

Rubio voice support for India for 2014, shortly afta Modi first become prime minister and visit Washington.

Rubio criticise then-President Barack Obama for “neglecting” India following efforts by di George W. Bush administration to strengthen ties with New Delhi.

“Di world largest democracy get potential to become key US partner in di decades ahead,” di senator talk then.

Waltz, Trump pick for him national security adviser, dey chair di House Congressional Caucus on India and Indian-Americans and don long advocate strengthening US defence and security ties with China neighbour.

E travel to New Delhi for August 2023 to participate for di country Independence Day celebrations with Modi.

While e dey dere, e hail Modi “Make in India” initiative, wey aim to position di nation as promising manufacturing alternative to China, and e pledge say di US go work alongside New Delhi.

Liu Zongyi, senior fellow with di Shanghai Institutes for International Studies’ South Asia and China Centre, talk say “based on previous positions wey these nominees don make, e no good for China ties with di US and with India”.

E add say despite di border thaw, “India go continue to see China as top strategic rival and e no likely to ease its efforts to compete with China”.

US Representative Michael Waltz, Republican of Florida, dey speak during di third day of di 2024 Republican National Convention for Milwaukee, Wisconsin, on July 17. Photo: AFP

Washington hard stance against Beijing, Robinder Sachdev, Indian foreign relations analyst, contend, “no go only weaken China growing influence, but e go also bring advantage to India”.

American companies, e tell di Indian news agency ANI, “go now dey look to move out of China more and more bicosof di problems dem dey face” as Washington dey prioritise moving US supply chains away from China. India, Sachdev note, fit be “attractive destination”.

However, Lin Minwang of Fudan University Centre for South Asian Studies argue say questions remain about how much Trump, wey don repeatedly voice doubts about security alliances, go work on ties to India or even whether him aides fit convince am to do so.

Under Trump “America First” policy during him first term from 2017 to 2021, di US move significantly toward isolationism.

“If dat still be di faith of Trump now, then e go be question if di US go invest more on its own alliances,” Lin talk.

“How we go expect Trump to invest more on its partnership with India?”

Despite optimism about di US-India partnership, Lin caution say relations fit dey more fragile than dem appear.

Di Biden administration don raise concerns over India human rights record, and India national security adviser, Ajit Doval, cancel US trip for September afta New York court issue summons related to civil suit wey Sikh separatist Gurpat want Singh Pannun file.

While India label Pannun terrorist, di US Justice Department indict one Indian national over foiled plot to kill am, later add one Indian intelligence officer to di charges.

Moreover, US-India trade relations during Trump first term dey rocky under US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, wey initiate trade investigations and impose tariffs on Indian imports.

E also remove New Delhi from duty-free programme.

Lighthizer reportedly dey in line for trade representative again, though nothing don officially announce.

During him campaign, Trump vow to punish New Delhi for imposing up to 80 percent import duties on American-made motorcycles by imposing reciprocal tariffs.

But Shidore talk say di pro-India leanings of Trump new team fit help create “quite generous terms for India” in di overall tough stance di president-elect likely go take against all trading partners wey dey run surpluses.

For 2023, di trade balance with di US dey in India favour, with surplus of more than US$35 billion.

Compared to China US$279 billion trade surplus with di US for 2023, Shidore argue say New Delhi dey in stronger position to strike favourable trade deal with Trump than Beijing dey.

China remain di “central pillar” behind di US engagement with India, Shidore talk, noting say Trump for him first term revive di Quad – US-led security grouping including India, Australia and Japan – as well as sign defence cooperation agreements with New Delhi.

Trump don also nominate Peter Hegseth as di next US defence secretary.

Fox News commentator, Hegseth recently claim say China dey build army to defeat di US.

While di US never share its most cutting-edge technologies, according to Shidore, Trump likely go focus on intelligence cooperation and approving more arms deals with New Delhi, all with eye on China.

“A year or two from now, I fully expect di US to actually dey tougher on China and see India as partner in dat process,” e talk.

Trump oda key security-related pick na Gabbard. If dem confirm am, she go oversee di 17 US intelligence agencies.

Gabbard, wey serve four terms as US representative from Hawaii, also run short-lived campaign for di Democratic presidential nomination for 2020. She leave di party for 2022.

Under Biden, di US deepen intelligence-sharing efforts with New Delhi, including on di disputed Himalayan border with China, and Gabbard dey expected to keep up di momentum.

Tulsi Gabbard dey Trump campaign rally for Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania on November 4.

Gabbard, practising Hindu, get ties to Modi Hindu-Nationalist BJP party.

For 2014, wen Modi visit Washington, she give her personal Bhagavad Gita to di Indian leader.

For 2015, high-ranking party official attend her wedding, and bring message and gift from Modi.

India then-ambassador, Tanranjit Sandhu, also attend di wedding.

Like Trump, Gabbard seem at least open to Russian arguments concerning its war on Ukraine, dey contend say e fit avoid if di US and its Western allies acknowledge Moscow “legitimate security concerns” regarding Ukraine interest in joining Nato.

Trump, long known as admirer of Russian President Vladimir Putin, call him invasion of Ukraine “genius” and “savvy” wene first occur for February 2022.

Modi maintain strong relationship with Putin, and New Delhi don continue to deepen its diplomatic and economic ties with Moscow, despite pressure from Biden to isolate Putin.

For October, di Biden administration sanction 19 Indian companies and two individuals, for supporting Russia military activities for Ukraine.

“Dere were differences between di Biden and Modi teams” on Ukraine, Shidore talk.

Among all di oda strategic shifts Trump return fit mean for New Delhi, e note, di open question about Ukraine na “maybe di biggest relief for India, bicos di Russia relationship, India no dey willing to give dat up”.

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