Africa
Democracy On The Brink of Treacherous Crossroads
Dr T. A. Adegba
Introduction:
When Democracy Begins to Whisper
“Democracy seldom ends with a bang; it fades away with a whisper,” warned Fareed Zakaria of CNN. That whisper now trembles across Nigeria’s political terrain.
Under the Tinubu-led All Progressives Congress (APC), Nigeria is witnessing an unprecedented wave of defections from the opposition, a silent political realignment that risks mutating the country’s plural democracy into a one-party behemoth.
The dramatic defection of Governor Sheriff Oborevwori of Delta State, followed swiftly by Umo Eno (Akwa Ibom), Peter Mbah (Enugu), and Douye Diri (Bayelsa), signaled not conviction but capitulation, a surrender to fear, power, and patronage.
With the Presidency perceived to command the INEC, Judiciary, and Security institutions, the balance of democratic power has tilted dangerously toward executive absolutism.
As Alexis de Tocqueville warned in Democracy in America (1835):
“The greatest danger to liberty is not the tyranny of a single man, but the apathy of a people content to let him rule in their stead.”
Imperatives Behind the Defection Wave
1. Politics of Fear and Survival
In a climate of uncertainty, defection becomes an act of self-preservation. The opposition no longer competes, it negotiates survival. State coercion, judicial intimidation, and political persecution have replaced ideological conviction with expedient submission.
2. Institutional Capture and Executive Overreach
Control of electoral, judicial, and security bodies by the ruling elite transforms democracy into managed pluralism, where opposition is tolerated but never allowed to triumph.
3. Patronage and Rent-Seeking
Nigeria’s rentier structure rewards loyalty to the center. Access to contracts, appointments, and state protection often depends on party alignment, deepening clientelism and eroding political independence.
4. Absence of Ideological Politics
With political parties devoid of firm philosophies, defection carries no moral weight. Politics becomes transactional, an auction of allegiance to whoever holds the levers of power.
Consequences: Democracy in Distress
1. Erosion of Opposition and Voter Choice
Elections risk becoming mere formalities, ritual confirmations of the ruling party’s dominance.
As Samuel Huntington warned:
“Without institutionalized opposition, democracy is merely the rotation of elites.”
2. Judicial Subservience and the Decline of Rule of Law
When courts become political instruments, justice dies silently, and tyranny gains legal cover.
3. Economic and Governance Fragility
Investor confidence erodes in systems where patronage dictates governance and fiscal prudence is sacrificed for political loyalty.
4. Authoritarian Drift
Montesquieu’s axiom remains eternal:
“Power must be checked by power, else it becomes despotic.”
Comparative Reflections: Lessons from Zimbabwe, Turkey, and South Africa
I. Zimbabwe – From Liberation to Captivity
Zimbabwe offers the clearest mirror of Nigeria’s current drift.
After independence, ZANU-PF under Robert Mugabe institutionalized dominance through coercion, clientelism, and control of electoral and judicial institutions.
Opposition voices were neutralized through harassment, selective prosecutions, and electoral manipulation.
Over time, ZANU-PF’s hegemony created a political culture where loyalty was rewarded and dissent criminalized. The economy collapsed not from external enemies but from internal authoritarian excess.
Lesson for Nigeria:
When electoral commissions and courts become tools of the ruling elite, democracy loses both credibility and moral legitimacy.
Institutional independence must precede political stability, not the reverse.
II. Turkey – Legal Authoritarianism in Disguise
Turkey under Recep Tayyip Erdoğan provides an even subtler lesson.
Through his Justice and Development Party (AKP), Erdoğan used constitutional and legal reforms to centralize power within an elected autocracy.
He controlled the judiciary, suppressed independent media, and used security agencies to intimidate opponents, all within the veneer of constitutionalism.
Erdoğan perfected what scholars call “authoritarian legalism”, the art of killing democracy through the instruments of law.
Lesson for Nigeria:
Authoritarianism no longer wears uniforms; it now dons the robes of legality. When democratic structures are weaponized by incumbents, liberty dies, not by coup, but by consent.
III. South Africa The Monotony of Dominance
South Africa’s African National Congress (ANC) shows how prolonged dominance erodes moral capital.
Though the ANC liberated South Africa from apartheid, its uninterrupted rule since 1994 has bred corruption, complacency, and internal factionalism. Through “cadre deployment,” party loyalists replaced meritocracy in public service, weakening institutions and public trust.
The opposition, notably the Democratic Alliance (DA) and Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), remains electorally marginalized, unable to unseat the ANC despite its failures.
Lesson for Nigeria:
Even liberation movements decay when unchecked. Political virtue erodes under unbroken dominance. Democracy demands periodic renewal through credible contestation, not inherited entitlement.
Shared Lessons and Nigerian Implications
Across these three examples, a pattern emerges:
Control of institutions always precedes the decline of democracy.
Economic decay follows political centralization.
Civil liberties shrink as ruling elites conflate themselves with the state.
For Nigeria, these lessons are chillingly familiar.
Once political survival depends on party loyalty, and justice depends on executive favour, the Republic stands on the precipice of democratic suffocation.
Political and Electoral Security under Democratic Liberty and Justice
In genuine democracies, security is designed to protect liberty; in failing democracies, it is redesigned to preserve power.
The growing convergence of Nigeria’s security agencies, electoral institutions, and judiciary under executive control has profound implications for liberty and justice.
1. Politicization of Security Agencies
When police, DSS, and military deployments are influenced by political directives, opposition parties campaign under fear. Electoral violence and intimidation become predictable instruments of control.
2. INEC and Electoral Integrity
The credibility of INEC depends not on technology, but on autonomy. Where appointments are partisan and results can be influenced through judicial reinterpretation, the electoral mandate loses sanctity.
3. Judicial Capture and Electoral Adjudication
Post-election tribunals now determine outcomes more than ballot boxes. When judges become the final arbiters of political loyalty rather than justice, democracy becomes hollow.
4. Civil Liberty versus State Security
Under the guise of maintaining order, dissent is often securitized.
Peaceful protests are criminalized, journalists are surveilled, and opposition rallies restricted, all justified in the name of “national security.”
Yet as Thomas Jefferson observed,
“The price of liberty is eternal vigilance.”
True security is not the silence of dissent but the safety of those who speak truth to power.
Reclaiming Nigeria’s Democratic Soul: Reform and Renewal
I. Institutional Independence: Insulate INEC, judiciary, and security agencies from executive control.
II. Constitutional Anti-Defection Enforcement: Defectors should automatically forfeit their mandate unless within coalition agreements.
III. Strengthen Legislative Oversight: Empower the National Assembly to review security deployments during elections.
Political Finance Regulation: Audit and sanction misuse of public funds for partisan activities.
IV. Civic Empowerment: Guarantee the protection of journalists, NGOs, and human rights defenders.
V. Civic Education and Political Literacy: Democracy dies where citizens do not understand their rights.
Philosophical Conclusion: Between Dominion and Deliverance
Nigeria’s democracy stands at a moral and institutional crossroads, between freedom and fear, between pluralism and political captivity.
The recent defections of Delta, Akwa Ibom, and Bayelsa leaders do not symbolize unity; they reveal submission, the quiet colonization of conscience under the weight of power.
Democracy is not the absence of order; it is the presence of choice.
It is the courage to oppose even when outnumbered, and the will to stand even when standing alone.
As Karl Popper warned,
“The essence of democracy is not that the people rule, but that they can dismiss their rulers without bloodshed.”
And as Edmund Burke immortalized,
“The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing.”
If Nigerians surrender their vigilance, democracy will continue in name but perish in essence- democratic absolutism is akin to authoritarianism
The call to conscience is clear: reform, resist, and restore, for liberty once lost is seldom regained without struggle.
Dr T. A. Adegba_Transmitting my thoughts and putting my message across_
October 23, 2025
Tanzania is reeling from the massacre of hundreds of protesters following its disputed October 29 elections, as a powerful cabal tightens its grip on the nation’s leadership.
According to multiple government insiders who spoke to AFP, senior politicians are horrified but too terrified to speak publicly as a small circle of hardliners around President Samia Suluhu Hassan consolidates total control.
Horrific images of bodies lying on streets have flooded social media since the elections, which gave President Hassan a controversial 98 percent victory. Opposition leaders were either jailed, disqualified, or abducted during the vote.
The opposition claims that over 1,000 people were killed during five days of unrest that followed the elections, while the government has yet to release any official casualty figures. The violence occurred under a complete internet blackout that shielded the bloodshed from real-time scrutiny.
UN Human Rights Chief Volker Turk said there are “disturbing reports that security forces have been seen removing bodies from streets and hospitals to undisclosed locations,” suggesting an attempt to conceal evidence.
A senior government official, speaking anonymously for fear of reprisal, told AFP they had identified two suspected mass grave sites near Dar es Salaam — at Kondo and Mabwepande. The locations remain unverified, but satellite imagery reportedly shows heavy ground disturbance.
Both the official and a former presidential advisor described the group surrounding the president as a “tiny cabal” made up of her son Abdul Halim Hafidh Ameir, private secretary Waziri Salum, intelligence chief Suleiman Abubakar Mombo, and East African MP Angela Kizigha.
“They are the ones influencing the president and running the country,” the advisor said. “Everyone else has been completely frozen out.”
The insider also alleged that President Hassan’s son commands a private militia believed to be behind the wave of abductions and executions targeting critics since 2024. The government has denied involvement in kidnappings, though over 83 cases had been confirmed by the Tanganyika Law Society before the election.
Some victims were high-profile figures, such as former government spokesman Humphrey Polepole, who vanished after resigning in protest. Others were young citizens abducted for criticizing the government online.
“The only explanation is deep-seated paranoia,” the ex-advisor added. “And now, it’s completely out of control.”
Lawmakers, though horrified, are reportedly too scared to confront the regime or address their constituents.
“What’s clear,” one official said, “is that Tanzania will never be the same again.”
Hannibal Gadhafi, son of the late Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi, has been released by Lebanese authorities after paying his $900,000 bail, ending his 10-year detention in Lebanon, officials confirmed on Monday.
Gadhafi had been detained since 2015 on suspicion of withholding information on the fate of Lebanese Shiite cleric Moussa al-Sadr, who disappeared during a visit to Libya in 1978.
Security sources and Gadhafi’s lawyer, Charbel Milad al-Khoury, confirmed his release, saying he was now fully entitled to choose his next destination.
The release comes after a judicial decision earlier in the week that reduced his bail from $11 million to $900,000 and lifted a travel ban, allowing him to leave the country.
It was reportedly paid by a Libyan delegation that had been negotiating for Gadhafi’s release with Lebanese authorities.
Before his kidnapping in 2015 by Lebanese militants seeking information on al-Sadr, Hannibal Gadhafi had lived in exile with his Lebanese wife, Aline Skaf, and their children in Syria.
He was then kept in a Beirut jail without trial, creating a continuing legal and diplomatic standoff between Lebanon and Libya.
The disappearance of the cleric is still a taboo topic in Lebanon. While most Lebanese believe that Moussa al-Sadr is dead, his family still insists he could be alive in a Libyan jail. Al-Sadr would now be 96 years old.
Hannibal, who was born in 1975, three years before al-Sadr disappeared, fled to Algeria, and later Syria, where he was granted political asylum, following the 2011 Libyan uprising that ultimately saw the death of Moammar Gadhafi and some of his children.
His release marks a major development in the long-running saga surrounding the Gadhafi family’s legal and diplomatic entanglements.
Moammar Gadhafi was survived by eight children, many of whom played important roles in governing the country. Several, including Muatassim, Saif al-Arab and Khamis, were killed in the 2011 uprising while others such as Saif al-Islam remain active in Libya today.
Hannibal’s siblings Mohammed and Aisha now live in Oman. Al-Saadi resides in Turkey after being released from detention in Libya in 2021.
The Lebanese Justice Ministry confirmed that Gadhafi’s defense team also withdrew a case against the Lebanese state that had been filed in Geneva last month over his prolonged detention without trial.
Chinese President Xi Jinping has congratulated Cameroon’s President Paul Biya on his re-election, reaffirming China’s commitment to strengthen its long-standing partnership with the Central African nation.
The congratulatory message, published on the website of China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Friday, highlighted the “traditional friendship” between the two countries.
Xi noted that in recent years, China and Cameroon have deepened political trust and achieved “fruitful cooperation” in several sectors, including infrastructure, energy, and trade.
According to Xi, the relationship between Beijing and Yaoundé remains a model of mutual respect and development-oriented cooperation in Africa.
He emphasized that both countries have “consistently supported each other on core interests and major concerns.”
Xi said China values its relations with Cameroon and is ready to build on the achievements of the Beijing Summit of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC).
He stressed that the next phase of cooperation will focus on implementing summit outcomes, enhancing economic engagement, and improving the welfare of citizens in both countries.
“China attaches great importance to the development of China–Cameroon relations,” Xi said.
“We are ready to work with President Paul Biya to promote the in-depth development of the comprehensive strategic partnership between the two countries and better benefit the two peoples.”
The Chinese leader also pointed out that 2026 will mark the 55th anniversary of diplomatic ties between China and Cameroon.
He described the milestone as “an opportunity to further advance bilateral relations” and strengthen collaboration in new areas such as digital economy, health, and green development.
Beijing has been expanding its diplomatic and economic footprint in Africa through initiatives like the Belt and Road and FOCAC frameworks. Cameroon, in turn, remains one of China’s strategic partners in Central Africa, benefiting from infrastructure financing, telecommunications investments, and cultural exchanges.
President Biya, who has ruled Cameroon since 1982, is among Africa’s longest-serving leaders. His re-election further cements the country’s ongoing relationship with Beijing, which has been a key source of loans and development projects.
China and Cameroon established diplomatic ties in 1971. Since then, both nations have maintained steady cooperation in trade, education, and public health, with China funding projects such as hospitals, highways, and hydropower plants across Cameroon.
As both nations prepare to mark 55 years of diplomatic relations, analysts say the renewed commitment from Beijing signals China’s continued interest in maintaining its influence and economic presence across Africa amid growing global competition.
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