Nigeria’s long-standing dependence on imported petrol may be approaching a historic turning point as oil marketers reveal that supplies are increasingly being sourced locally from the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemical Complex, with claims that petrol importation has significantly reduced or even halted in recent weeks. This development, if sustained, could mark one of the most consequential shifts in Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector in decades.
According to multiple industry stakeholders, the domestic fuel supply chain has shown remarkable stability in recent months, with independent marketers confirming that they are now lifting petrol directly from the Dangote Refinery. The marketers insist that the improved availability of products, coupled with declining pump prices, suggests that local refining capacity is beginning to meet national demand.
Speaking exclusively to DDM NEWS, the National Publicity Secretary of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN), Chinedu Ukadike, dismissed suggestions that petrol importation is still ongoing, stating emphatically that independent marketers are currently sourcing all their supplies from the Dangote Refinery.
Ukadike noted that despite the typically high fuel consumption associated with the festive season, there has been no shortage of petrol across the country. He attributed this stability to Dangote Refinery’s pricing strategy and consistent supply volumes, which he said have effectively calmed the market.
“Well, since Dangote reduced his price, we have not complained of any shortage of products,” Ukadike explained. “Even during the Christmas period, when demand is always very high due to heavy traffic and travel, there was no scarcity. There was also no importation. The supply chain has remained stable, and this has put to rest the accusations and counteraccusations surrounding petrol imports.”
According to him, the refinery has opened up the market for independent marketers by allowing them to lift products directly, eliminating the traditional three-tier distribution system that often inflated costs and created inefficiencies. Ukadike added that the refinery has also reduced the minimum lifting volume from 500,000 litres to 250,000 litres, making it easier for smaller marketers to access products by pooling resources.
“So all the supplies we are getting now are from Dangote,” he said. “Independent marketers are buying directly, and that has made a huge difference in both availability and pricing.”
This optimism, however, comes against the backdrop of earlier reports suggesting that the supply arrangement between Dangote Refinery and about 20 major petroleum marketers had collapsed over pricing disagreements. The agreement, which reportedly involved the offtake of 600 million litres of petrol monthly, was designed as a pilot initiative to stabilise supply and ease the pressure on pump prices. Reports in November 2025 claimed that the collapse of this arrangement led to a resurgence in petrol imports.
Data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) appeared to support those concerns, showing that petrol imports surged to 1.563 billion litres in November 2025, up from 828 million litres in October 2025. The figures reignited debate over whether Nigeria’s domestic refining capacity was truly sufficient to meet national demand.
However, Dangote Petroleum Refinery strongly refuted claims that the increase in imports was linked to any breakdown in its supply relationship with marketers. In a clarification obtained by DDM NEWS, the refinery described the reports as inaccurate and misleading, stressing that no supply agreement had collapsed.
The refinery stated that its engagement with the downstream market was deliberately structured to enhance competition, expand access, and respond to rising demand. It also emphasised that the commencement of local supply had significantly improved product availability nationwide.
Independent marketers have largely supported this position, distancing themselves from claims that the surge in imports reflected a failure of the Dangote supply model. According to them, the reality on the ground shows improved availability, shorter supply chains, and better pricing dynamics since the refinery began supplying petrol locally.
Ukadike further disclosed that marketers are impressed by Dangote Refinery’s level of transparency and expect further price reductions as operations continue to stabilise.
“Even at a time when fuel is usually scarce and expensive, we are seeing daily downward price reviews,” he said. “The openness Dangote has introduced has made the market more competitive. Once local pricing becomes cheaper, transportation and logistics costs will drop significantly, and that will reflect directly in pump prices.”
He added that independent marketers are “happy and encouraged” by the direct supply policy, noting that it has already started yielding tangible benefits across the distribution chain.
Not all industry voices, however, share the same level of optimism. Another retail oil marketer, Edwin Ogah, offered a more cautious assessment, admitting that petrol importation is still ongoing, though he described it as a strategic necessity rather than a sign of market failure.
Ogah explained that imported petrol is largely used for stock security, allowing marketers to build buffer reserves and avoid sudden scarcity. According to him, the batch nature of fuel imports can create the impression of excess volumes, even when the fuel is simply being stored to meet future demand.
“At the moment, domestic refining is still not sufficient to meet national demand,” Ogah said. “While we now have growing local capacity, it has not yet reached the scale, consistency, and nationwide distribution required to fully replace imports.”
He noted that the supply chain remains sensitive to factors such as foreign exchange availability, port congestion, pipeline integrity, and trucking costs. As a result, marketers with access to FX and credit facilities will continue to import fuel to bridge supply gaps, especially during peak consumption periods.
Despite these differing perspectives, there is broad agreement that Dangote Refinery has fundamentally altered Nigeria’s fuel supply landscape. In December 2025, the refinery formally confirmed its readiness to take full responsibility for domestic petrol supply, pledging to deliver 1.5 billion litres of petrol monthly from December onward.
The 650,000-barrels-per-day facility has also dismissed rumours of an impending shutdown for maintenance, insisting that it continues to operate at full capacity while supplying over 50 million litres of petrol daily. The refinery described claims of shutdown as false and deliberately designed to create panic in the downstream market.
As Nigeria navigates this transitional phase, the debate over petrol importation highlights both the progress made and the challenges that remain. Whether imports will be completely eliminated in the near term remains uncertain, but one fact is clear: Dangote Refinery has emerged as a stabilising force with the potential to redefine Nigeria’s fuel economy.
DDM NEWS will continue to monitor developments in the downstream petroleum sector, bringing readers exclusive insights into how local refining, pricing policies, and supply dynamics are shaping the future of Nigeria’s energy market.
