Hormuz Uncertainty Keeps Oil Prices on Edge

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Oil prices remained largely unchanged on Monday after Iran cooled expectations of an immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, insisting that the United States must first meet certain conditions.

Brent crude futures rose 19 cents to $83.74 a barrel by 8:07 a.m. GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate gained three cents to $78.21.

Both benchmarks fell more than seven per cent last week as hopes grew that Iran and Oman were close to reaching an agreement that could reopen the strategic waterway.

The Strait of Hormuz, a major route for global energy supplies, carried about a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas before the Middle East conflict began in late February.

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Iran said on Sunday that negotiations with Oman were nearing completion but maintained that the strait would only reopen after Washington met additional demands, including compensation for what Tehran described as widespread US attacks.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi also said Tehran was not negotiating directly with Washington and would not enter talks while the United States continued to breach an interim agreement reached in June.

Concerns over possible disruptions to energy supplies were further heightened after Iran-aligned Houthi fighters said they had attacked Saudi Aramco’s Jazan refinery in Saudi Arabia on Sunday.

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The attack came two days after Saudi Arabia signed a defence agreement with Turkey and Pakistan amid growing tensions linked to the US-Israeli war with Iran.

The Houthis have also carried out attacks in the Red Sea, raising fears of further disruption along another key route for global oil shipments.

Meanwhile, UAE energy company ADNOC said 15 of its vessels had come under attack while passing through the Strait of Hormuz since the conflict began.

Analysts said oil prices could fall if the waterway is fully reopened and shipping resumes without restrictions.

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However, a collapse in negotiations or fresh attacks on energy infrastructure could push prices higher again.

“Any major progress towards restoring unrestricted shipping could exert downward pressure on oil prices, while a breakdown in negotiations or renewed supply disruptions could quickly revive the geopolitical risk premium,” said Sugandha Sachdeva, founder of New Delhi-based SS WealthStreet.

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