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Trump vs. Biden again? How is the US headed toward a rematch that the electorate didn’t want?

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It was another significant victory for Donald Trump. In the Republican presidential primary in New Hampshire, he has won handily. This puts the former president in a strong position to run for president in November on behalf of the Grand Old Party (GOP).

As the first non-incumbent Republican nominee to win both Iowa and New Hampshire in the modern period, Trump has created history.

The most recent victory is a major setback for Trump’s final opponent in the Republican primary, Nikki Haley. The former ambassador to the UN, however, has said that “this race is far from over” and promised to continue fighting.

Can Haley, though, stop Trump? Or is a rematch between Trump and Biden unavoidable? We examine.

In the struggle for the GOP, might Nikki Haley hurt Trump’s chances?

The odds favor former president Trump to win the GOP primary in New Hampshire. He was ahead with 54.6% of the vote in the New Hampshire primary after the majority of votes had been tallied. Nikki Haley came in last with 43.2%, as reported by CNN.

Haley had hoped that the sizeable group of independent voters in the Northeastern state would help her pull off an unexpected victory and potentially weaken Trump’s tight hold on the Republican Party. But the former president won both Iowa and New Hampshire, which have been the first two states to hold presidential primaries since 1976, with close margins. Eight days ago, he won Iowa by a record amount of votes.

Haley, nevertheless, is not one to give up.

At a Concord post-election celebration, Hillary promised her supporters that the race would go on. I’m a combatant. I’m also tenacious. And right now, we’re the only people left standing by Donald Trump.

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Does she have a chance, though? Or is she just a matter of time to pull out?

Haley was mostly in Iowa and New Hampshire, where she also spent a lot of money on her campaign. Her greatest opportunity to make a change was Tuesday’s primary. However, Trump has become a clear favorite to receive the GOP nominee.

Haley has already said that she will be making a stop in Charleston, South Carolina. Her campaign has declared that it will invest $4 million in state television advertising.

Haley was born and raised in South Carolina, where the next big primary would take place on February 24. Should she lose that battle, it would be embarrassing.

It would be difficult to move on from her loss as South Carolina’s governor, where she also held office. According to latest polls, she is now 30 points behind.

According to BBC’s Sarah Smith, Haley “may well choose to retire from this race before she faces Palmetto state voters, to protect her future political ambitions.”

Haley may enter the competition for as long as she desires.

The next major test would be Super Tuesday on March 5 if she doesn’t withdraw after South Carolina. Alabama, Arkansas, Alaska, California, Colorado, Iowa, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia—a more conservative territory—are among the states holding elections.

Should Trump secure a significant victory in these elections, it will be extremely difficult to overtake him.

Does that imply that Trump and Biden will compete?

After winning the New Hampshire primary, Joe Biden’s campaign for the president has begun to take form. In order to win, the US president forewent running a campaign in the state and instead depended on his allies and surrogates to write in.

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Representative Dean Phillips of Minnesota and writer Marianne Williamson are running against Biden in the Democratic primary. CNN notes that Biden’s route to the nomination for a second term is evident.

“It is now evident that Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee,” stated Biden following the victory. And I want the nation to know that the stakes are bigger than ever.

How did America arrive here?

It’s evident from public polling on the US presidential contest of 2024 that most voters oppose a rematch between Trump and Biden.

Seventy-five percent of Democratic voters expressed a desire for a different candidate from Biden prior to the 2022 midterm elections. Many claimed that his age was the reason. This November, the incumbent will turn eighty-two.

Every significant national survey has shown Trump in the lead. Yet, a recent Economist/YouGuv poll found that just 45% of Democrats think he will be the Republican nominee. According to the Biden campaign, the majority of Americans who are still undecided simply do not appear to believe that Donald Trump will likely be the Republican presidential nominee, at least not just yet, CNN says.

With the exception of Robert F. Kennedy, who abandoned his Democratic primary campaign to run independently for the presidency, and Dean Phillips, who was unable to win over enough New Hampshire voters, no well-known Democrat has declined to challenge Biden.

According to David A. Graham in The Atlantic, “a look at the Republican side shows why high-profile Democrats may have been wary of jumping in.” Former Florida governor Ron De Santis was considered the GOP’s future leader, but the primary may have put an end to his aspirations to become president. “Despite the demands of anti-Trump Republicans for a one-on-one contest between Trump and a substitute, when it materialized, he easily defeated Nikki Haley. The straightforward truth is that Republicans still find Trump to be highly appealing,” he states.

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Then how is America getting closer to a competition that it does not want to be in?

According to Graham’s piece in The Atlantic, “the most fundamental reason is polarization, and in particular negative polarization—dislike and contempt for the opposite party.” The impacts of polarization are evident in all of the primaries. Trump’s 91 felony arrests were supposed to have harmed his campaign historically, but as DeSantis supporters regretted, they actually served to unite Republicans behind him.

Democrats’ realization that, in spite of their reservations about him, Biden might be the most qualified contender to defeat Trump once more has helped him.

That sets up a rematch for the US. The Republican nominee in 2024 is probably going to be a former contender who was indicted, lost the last election, and is embroiled in multiple legal disputes. Moreover, Democrats are supporting a president whose approval ratings have continuously dropped.

Using inputs from Agencies

 


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