Ondo Governorship Poll: Can Peter Obi’s Charisma Prevail?

This Saturday, November 16, 2024, the people of Ondo State in Western Nigeria will cast their votes to elect a leader who will guide them for the next four years and drive positive development in the state.

In light of this, former Anambra State governor and Labour Party presidential candidate, Mr. Peter Obi, traveled to Ondo State on Monday to rally support for the party’s governorship candidate, Sola Ebiseni.

Mr. Peter Obi addressing a crowd in Ondo state last Monday. By his immediate right is Sola Ebiseni, governorship candidate of the Labour Party.

As a presidential candidate, it is customary and essential to visit subnational units to influence local politics.

This is because one’s influence reflects their power of persuasion.

More importantly, one’s influence determines one’s success in the next presidential election.

If a political party manages to install its candidate in a subnational unit and s/he performs excellently in office, it significantly increases the party’s chances of winning the presidential election.

Given this context, how much influence could someone like Peter Obi exert on subnational units in Nigeria?

Undoubtedly, Mr. Obi already commands a personality cult across the country.

However, since the conclusion of the 2023 elections, Peter Obi has not succeeded in establishing his party’s leadership at the state level.

Of course. He achieved this in Abia State through His Excellency Mr. Alex Otti.

However, some pundits argue that the Abia State gubernatorial election coincided with the presidential election, a time when the Obidient Movement was at its peak.

The movement’s momentum automatically favored any candidate sponsored as the party’s governorship flagbearer, regardless of their personality.

This partially explains why Governor Otti won the election.

Despite his popularity, Peter Obi has struggled to extend his influence on governorship positions in various states.

Between the end of the 2023 presidential election and October 2024, Nigeria held four off-cycle elections in Imo, Bayelsa, Kogi, and Edo states.

In all these states, the All Progressives Congress secured victory, except in Bayelsa, where the Peoples Democratic Party won, according to results released by the Independent National Electoral Commission.

Unfortunately, the Labour Party did not gain significant traction.

If you assess Obi’s influence in the Ondo election based on his 2023 electoral victory in the state, you might be mistaken.

Consider Edo State as an example.

In 2023, Peter Obi won Edo state after securing a majority of 331,163 votes.

But he could not translate this victory into success during the Edo governorship election.

In Ondo State, Bola Tinubu’s APC secured 61,944 votes to win, followed by the PDP with 115,467 votes.

The Labour Party trailed with 47,350 votes, coming third.

Given this, if the Labour Party couldn’t win the governorship election in Edo State, where Mr. Obi had won in 2023, it is unlikely it could do so in Ondo State, where Mr. Obi lost the election.

It is instructive that dynamism and uncertainty mark Nigeria’s political landscape.

No single factor dominates all political scenarios.

Instead, various elements such as money, personality, party structure, zoning, tribalism, and federal influence can individually impact specific regions or combine to shape particular elections.

For example, former Anambra State governor Willie Obiano won his first term through a combination of the All Progressives Grand Alliance’s popularity and the influence of his predecessor, Peter Obi.

However, after Obi defected to the PDP, Obiano’s reelection depended on his strong performance in his first term and the dominance of APGA.

In Imo State the Supreme Court declared Governor Hope Uzodimma winner who initially came fourth in the 2019 election

His victory can be attributed to federal influence.

In the relatively peaceful Edo governorship election, the Labour Party candidate was expected to win.

Nonetheless, it was alleged that massive vote-trading by the APC swayed voters against their conscience.

This prompted Obi to emphasize the dangers of transactional politics during his campaign in Ondo State on Monday.

He told the people of Ondo State that Nigeria’s democracy is in ruins due to the sacrifice of democratic values for money.

In a country where over 100 million people are multi-dimensionally poor, transactional politics, unfortunately, becomes the norm.

Obi’s campaign in Ondo State was a demonstration of his belief that a New Nigeria is possible.

However, the chances of the Labour Party candidate winning the election in the state are minimal or even non-existent.

Ondo Guber Poll: What Experts Say

Experts have determined that the Ondo election is mainly a contest between two candidates and their political factions.

Lucky Aiyedatiwa, Governor of Ondo State and candidate of the All Progressive Congress

One is Lucky Aiyedatiwa of the All Progressives Congress, who is the current governor of Ondo State.

The other is Agboola Ajayi of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP.

On December 27, 2023, Aiyedatiwa was inaugurated as the governor of Ondo State.

This event followed the death of his predecessor, Rotimi Akeredolu.

As per the constitution, Aiyedatiwa took office to complete the joint tenure of the late Akeredolu and himself.

This tenure will conclude in February 2025.

Governor Aiyadatiwa benefits from both federal support and the power of incumbency.

He has also asserted that he has the backing of workers and ordinary citizens in the state.

He has highlighted his accomplishments in infrastructural development.

They include public utilities renewal, increased agricultural production, entrepreneurship and youth development, job creation, and security enhancements.

Agboola Ajayi, governorship candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party.

Meanwhile, his rival, Agboola Ajayi, is also a formidable contender.

Ajayi has more public service experience than his APC counterpart.

He has served as a counselor, Chairman of a Local Government Area, and member of the House of Representatives.

Afterwards, late Governor Akeredolu nominated him as his deputy in 2016.

Being a grassroots politician, Mr. Ajayi could potentially garner significant support from the local population.

As the Ondo poll draws near, it is still unclear to whom to ascribe victory.

The certainty, however, is that only the PDP will pose a major challenge to the ruling party.

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