Saudi Arabia is increasingly being drawn into a regional conflict it has spent months trying to avoid, as growing attacks from Iran and its allied groups force the kingdom to abandon its strategy of restraint.
For much of the conflict, Riyadh maintained diplomatic channels with Tehran while avoiding direct military confrontation. That approach is now under severe strain as the kingdom faces simultaneous threats from Iran, Yemen’s Houthi rebels and Iran-backed militias operating in Iraq.
The turning point came this week when Saudi fighter jets, alongside U.S. aircraft, launched strikes against Iran-backed militia positions in eastern Iraq following a series of drone attacks targeting Saudi oil infrastructure and critical facilities.
The latest escalation follows missile attacks by the Houthis on Saudi oil complexes along the Red Sea coast and repeated attacks on Saudi-linked shipping near the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, a vital route for the kingdom’s expanding oil exports.
For Riyadh, the growing insecurity threatens one of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s key economic objectives of transforming Saudi Arabia into a global investment and energy hub.
The kingdom has invested heavily in expanding Red Sea export capacity as disruptions continue in the Strait of Hormuz, but renewed attacks now place those plans at risk.
Security experts warn that Saudi Arabia faces a complex military challenge. Despite spending billions of dollars modernising its armed forces and missile defence systems, the kingdom must protect a vast territory, extensive coastlines and widely dispersed energy infrastructure from missile and drone attacks launched from multiple directions.
The Houthis remain one of Saudi Arabia’s most persistent threats. After years of costly military intervention in Yemen, Riyadh agreed to a truce in 2022, but tensions never fully subsided.
Recent missile strikes on oil facilities and attacks on tankers in the Red Sea have sharply raised the stakes.
Saudi Arabia also faces growing threats from pro-Iranian militias in Iraq, which U.S. officials say have repeatedly launched drones toward Saudi territory.
The joint U.S.-Saudi airstrikes against militia positions marked one of Riyadh’s strongest military responses since the current conflict began.
Meanwhile, concerns persist over Iran’s own military capabilities. Although Tehran has not directly attacked Saudi Arabia in recent months, Iranian officials have continued accusing Gulf countries of supporting military operations against Iran, fuelling fears of further escalation.
The conflict is already weighing on Saudi Arabia’s economy.
Increased defence spending and regional instability have contributed to the kingdom’s largest quarterly budget deficit since 2018, even as higher oil prices provide some financial relief.
While military cooperation between Saudi Arabia and the United States remains strong, officials in Riyadh are increasingly concerned about the prospect of facing a more aggressive Iran if American engagement in the region declines.
Having spent years pursuing diplomacy and economic transformation, Saudi Arabia now appears to be entering a more confrontational phase, balancing the need to defend its territory while trying to avoid being pulled into a wider regional war.
