Nigeria and China are poised to deepen their crude oil trade ties as major disruption in Venezuelan crude exports to China offers new opportunities for Nigeria’s oil sector. Industry analysts and traders have sounded the alarm over a dramatic reduction in Venezuelan oil shipments to China in early 2026, a development that could reshape crude supply flows and bolster Nigeria’s position in the Asian energy market.
The latest data and market intelligence indicate that Venezuela, once a significant supplier of crude and fuel oil to China, is experiencing one of the most severe export disruptions in recent memory. According to internal documents from Venezuelan state oil firm PDVSA and trading sources, Venezuela’s combined crude and fuel oil exports to China averaged about 642,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2025 — a substantial stream of oil that underpinned Beijing’s energy diversification strategy.
However, that supply is expected to plummet sharply in February 2026, with projections estimating deliveries of just about 166,000 bpd. This precipitous decline is largely attributed to a month-long U.S. maritime blockade that has deterred tankers from leaving Venezuelan waters and halted many planned shipments. Only around 5 million barrels of crude and fuel oil have managed to depart Venezuelan ports in recent weeks amid the standoff, traders told Reuters.
The evolving situation stems from Washington’s intensified efforts to disrupt Venezuela’s oil export capacity following political and security developments in Caracas. U.S. forces have seized sanctioned tankers near Venezuelan waters and effectively imposed an embargo that has left vessels either stranded or forced to return to port to avoid seizure.
China, the world’s largest crude importer, has historically maintained diversified sources of oil, drawing from the Middle East, Russia, and West Africa, including Nigeria. Nigeria’s oil and gas exports already make up a significant portion of its trade with China, with mineral fuels — primarily crude petroleum and natural gas — constituting nearly 90 percent of total exports.
Industry observers say Nigeria’s role as a reliable and secure supplier of crude to China could be enhanced by the Venezuelan shortfall. While Beijing continues to rely heavily on Middle East and Russian crude streams, disruptions in Venezuelan exports open the door wider for Nigerian barrels to fill part of the emerging void.
China’s dependence on foreign crude is driven by its massive energy needs and ongoing industrial expansion. Although Venezuelan oil has been attractive to Chinese independent refiners — often purchased at steep discounts — the current geopolitical pressures and sanctions have tilted the balance toward other suppliers. Venezuelan buyers have also reduced intake earlier due to narrowing price discounts compared with global benchmarks, further weakening its competitive edge.
Nigeria’s crude could benefit not only from reduced Venezuelan flows but also from China’s broader desire to ensure energy security. Analysts note that Nigeria’s exports are generally seen as stable and less susceptible to geopolitical swings, particularly since many of its major contracts with Chinese partners involve long-term commercial arrangements and investments — including those by large Chinese energy firms with stakes in Nigerian offshore developments.
In addition to crude oil, Nigeria has positioned itself as a strategic economic partner for China in other areas. Economic collaborations, including discussions around zero-tariff access for Nigerian goods, have been touted by trade analysts as mechanisms that could further bind the two nations economically, beyond the energy sector.
Experts also underscore that Nigeria’s mineral fuels — crude and gas — were valued at $1.41 billion in exports to China in 2023, illustrating the already significant footprint of Nigerian hydrocarbons in the Chinese market.
The decline in Venezuela-to-China exports has also been accompanied by broader shifts in global oil logistics. As the U.S. expands its control over Venezuelan oil sales — including marketing crude under government-sanctioned arrangements to Asian refiners through intermediaries — traditional supply routes are being rebased. Traders like Vitol and Trafigura have begun offering Venezuelan crude to Chinese and Indian refiners for March delivery under new U.S. government logistics frameworks, reflecting evolving market dynamics.
Chinese refiners, particularly smaller independent plants known as “teapots,” had historically benefited from competitive pricing on Venezuelan crude. With that stream now constricted, these refiners are increasingly exploring alternatives, including Canadian heavy crude, to maintain throughput, though such shifts come with cost considerations. (Reddit)
For Nigeria, this confluence of market pressures could be transformative. With China’s crude import volumes already reaching record highs in recent months — driven in part by strategic stockpiling and refinery expansion — there is strong appetite for dependable supply. Field analysts highlight that even modest increases in Nigerian crude flows could have outsized impacts on trade balances, revenue streams, and future bilateral energy cooperation.
Still, uncertainties remain. Venezuela continues to grapple with foundational production challenges that long predate the current blockade, including diminished output capacity and degraded export infrastructure. Efforts to revive Venezuelan exports through U.S. commercial channels, including potential expanded licenses for Western oil companies, illustrate the complex interplay of geopolitics and market access.
As Nigeria’s oil sector eyes potential gains, policymakers and industry stakeholders are watching closely. The disruption in Venezuelan exports provides a rare opening in global energy supply, and Nigeria — with its substantial crude reserves and existing trade relationships — appears well-positioned to capitalize on the moment.
DDM NEWS will continue to track developments in the global oil market, Nigeria-China energy trade dynamics, and how shifting geopolitical forces are influencing the future of crude exports and international partnerships.