A former US mayor, Mike Arnold, has told members of United States Congress that Nigeria may be heading toward an eventual breakup, describing such an outcome as both “likely inevitable and just” in light of what he characterised as deep-seated structural and humanitarian crisis.
Arnold made the remarks during a congressional briefing titled “Nigeria at the crossroads: The case for action,” where he laid out a sweeping critique of Nigeria’s political history, governance framework and current security situation.
He argued that many of the country’s present-day problems are rooted in its colonial formation, suggesting that the system imposed during British rule created long-term imbalances that have yet to be resolved.
According to him, Nigeria’s federal structure, the lingering tensions from the Biafra question, and what he described as entrenched regional dominance have collectively weakened national cohesion.
He told lawmakers that historical precedents from other former colonies such as the partition of India and Pakistan and the split of Sudan show that political restructuring or separation is sometimes the eventual outcome of unresolved internal contradictions.
Arnold, who leads Africa Arise International in both Nigeria and the United States, used the platform to advocate for a referendum that would allow Nigerians to determine their preferred constitutional future.
He said such a process, if freely conducted, could offer a peaceful pathway to either restructuring the federation or redefining it entirely.
A significant portion of his presentation focused on Nigeria’s civil war history.
He revisited the events leading up to the declaration of the Republic of Biafra in 1967, describing the former Eastern Region as one of the fastest-growing economies in Africa prior to the conflict.
Citing historical data, he pointed to strong economic performance under the leadership of Michael Okpara, arguing that the region had demonstrated substantial development potential before the war disrupted its trajectory.
Arnold also repeated longstanding claims about the humanitarian consequences of the conflict, including mass starvation during the blockade of Biafra.
He alleged that external support particularly from the United Kingdom played a decisive role in the outcome of the war, while also contributing to the scale of civilian suffering.
Casualty estimates from that period remain widely debated among historians, but Arnold maintained that the human toll was severe and continues to shape political sentiments in the region.
Turning to present-day Nigeria, Arnold raised concerns about insecurity and religious violence, arguing that conditions have deteriorated despite international attention.
He referenced the decision by Donald Trump to designate Nigeria as a Country of Particular Concern under U.S. religious freedom laws, claiming that violence against Christian communities has continued in the months since that classification.
He cited several recent incidents, including attacks in parts of northern and central Nigeria, as evidence of what he described as a worsening security climate.
His remarks, however, reflect one side of a highly contested narrative, with Nigerian authorities consistently rejecting allegations of systemic religious persecution and attributing violence to broader security challenges such as insurgency, banditry and communal conflict.
Arnold further accused the Nigerian government, led by Bola Ahmed Tinubu, of failing to adequately recognise and support internally displaced persons.
He claimed that the alleged underreporting or de-recognition of displacement camps could amount to a violation of international humanitarian standards if proven.
Referencing reports linked to agencies such as the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees and the International Organization for Migration, Arnold argued that inconsistencies in official data and humanitarian access raise serious concerns.
He suggested that deliberate obstruction of aid or failure to acknowledge displacement could meet legal thresholds associated with crimes under international law, though such claims would require independent verification.
Throughout the briefing, Arnold maintained that Nigeria stands at a critical juncture.
He urged U.S. lawmakers to pay closer attention to developments in the country, framing Nigeria’s stability as both a regional and global concern given its population size, economic significance and geopolitical role in West Africa.
While his presentation was forceful, it is likely to spark debate among policymakers.
Discussions about Nigeria’s unity, governance structure and security challenges remain complex and deeply sensitive, with strong opinions on all sides.
For now, Arnold’s testimony adds another voice to an ongoing international conversation about the country’s future and the paths it might take to achieve stability and development.
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