Aliko Dangote’s expansion into Nigeria’s upstream oil industry is taking a new turn, with his exploration business setting its sights on a major production milestone in 2028 as the group moves to unlock the vast resources sitting within its Niger Delta assets.
The development signals a deeper shift in Dangote’s energy strategy, which has increasingly moved beyond refining imported and locally sourced crude to securing a stronger position across the oil value chain.
With the Dangote Petroleum Refinery already operating at large commercial scale, the push into exploration and production could give the group greater control over the supply of crude feeding its downstream operations.
Dangote’s upstream business, West African Exploration and Production Company (WAEP), is working on the development of Oil Mining Leases 71 and 72, two assets in the Niger Delta with significant oil and gas potential.
The company has indicated plans to unlock more than 1.6 billion barrels of oil in place from the leases, making the assets an important component of its long-term upstream ambitions.
The 2028 target comes at a particularly important point for Dangote’s energy empire.
The group has already demonstrated its determination to build an integrated petroleum business, beginning with the construction of its massive refinery in Lagos and extending into crude production.
The strategy is designed to create a closer connection between upstream production and downstream processing, although the quantities expected from OML 71 and OML 72 will initially represent only a fraction of the refinery’s enormous crude requirements.
DDM News understands that the significance of the upstream project goes beyond the immediate volume of crude it can deliver.
For Dangote, developing domestic oil reserves could provide greater exposure to Nigeria’s most valuable natural resource while creating an additional source of crude for a refinery that is already transforming the country’s petroleum market.
The company’s journey into upstream production has already produced tangible results.
In April 2026, reports confirmed that Dangote’s upstream venture had achieved first oil from the Kalaekule field on OML 72, with production initially estimated at about 4,500 barrels per day.
The company was then targeting an increase to roughly 15,000 barrels per day as additional development and testing progressed.
That development means the 2028 target should be viewed in the context of a broader expansion programme rather than as the beginning of Dangote’s entire upstream journey.
The immediate objective is to increase production from existing discoveries while developing additional fields and infrastructure across the two leases.
The assets themselves have a long history in Nigeria’s petroleum industry.
Oil discoveries were made in the blocks decades ago, while production from the Kalaekule field began in the 1980s.
Output from the field reportedly averaged around 22,000 barrels per day during its earlier producing years before operations were eventually shut down.
WAEP says the field was in production between 1986 and 2002, while significant quantities of oil and gas remain within the wider leases.
The scale of the resources explains why the development has attracted attention.
WAEP estimates hydrocarbons initially in place in OML 72 at about 1.149 billion barrels of oil and 2.447 trillion cubic feet of gas, while OML 71 is estimated to contain about 158 million barrels of oil and 1.4 trillion cubic feet of gas.
These figures underline the potential for the assets to become a significant part of Dangote’s upstream portfolio if development progresses as planned.
However, the road from reserves to sustained commercial production will require substantial investment, drilling activity, infrastructure and operational efficiency.
The Niger Delta’s mature oil-producing environment also presents technical and logistical challenges that can influence production timelines and costs.
For Dangote, the bigger attraction is the possibility of establishing a more integrated energy chain.
The group’s refinery currently has a nameplate capacity of 650,000 barrels per day and has already reached full capacity, while plans are underway to increase the facility’s capacity to about 1.4 million barrels per day by 2028.
That planned expansion makes access to crude even more strategically important. Even if the OML 71 and OML 72 assets reach projected production levels, they would not be capable of supplying the refinery’s entire crude requirement.
S&P Global forecasts that production from the leases could eventually reach about 43,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day by 2036, highlighting the gap between Dangote’s upstream output and the refinery’s potential appetite for crude.
Instead, the upstream assets could become one component of a diversified crude supply strategy.
They could provide a reliable domestic source while the refinery continues to procure additional crude from other Nigerian producers and international markets.
This is particularly significant because Dangote’s refinery has historically depended on a combination of Nigerian and imported crude.
Increasing local production could therefore strengthen the group’s ability to manage supply risks and potentially reduce its exposure to fluctuations in international crude sourcing.
The development also comes as Nigeria seeks to attract fresh investment into its upstream sector.
Mature oil fields, declining output from some traditional assets and concerns over investment have pushed the country to encourage new capital, technology and operators into exploration and production.
Dangote’s involvement could provide a powerful demonstration of how large Nigerian industrial groups can move from consuming petroleum products to participating directly in their production.
For Nigeria, the implications could extend beyond Dangote’s corporate ambitions. Increased upstream activity has the potential to generate government revenue, create employment, support oilfield service companies and stimulate investment around producing communities.
If the development is executed successfully, it could also contribute to maintaining domestic crude production at a time when the country is seeking to reverse years of declining output.
Yet the most important question will be whether Dangote can translate the enormous resource potential of OML 71 and OML 72 into consistent commercial production within the projected timeline.
The group has already demonstrated its willingness to make large, long-term investments in Nigeria’s energy infrastructure.
The refinery itself represents one of the country’s biggest private-sector industrial projects, and the planned expansion to 1.4 million barrels per day would further raise its importance to Nigeria and the wider African petroleum market.
The upstream strategy therefore appears to be the next piece of a much larger energy puzzle.
Rather than remaining primarily a refiner dependent on crude suppliers, Dangote is positioning his business to have interests stretching from oil exploration and production to refining and petroleum products.
DDM News reports that the 2028 target could consequently become an important test of how quickly Dangote’s upstream ambitions can translate into meaningful production.
While the group has already recorded initial crude output, the development of additional fields and the expansion of production capacity will determine whether the Niger Delta assets can become a dependable pillar of the wider Dangote energy strategy.
If the plans remain on schedule, 2028 could mark a defining stage in Dangote’s transformation from Africa’s largest private industrial conglomerate into a more vertically integrated energy player, with crude production increasingly complementing the refining empire that has already reshaped Nigeria’s petroleum landscape.
