ABUJA, NIGERIA — Nigeria’s headline inflation rate dropped to 15.43 per cent in July 2026, down from 15.91 per cent in June, according to the latest Consumer Price Index report released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Monday . The figure also represents a significant year-on-year decline from the 24.94 per cent recorded in July 2025 .
However, the headline improvement masks a troubling surge in food prices, which accelerated sharply on a month-on-month basis to 5.56 per cent in July, up from 3.75 per cent in June — a jump of 1.82 percentage points . Year-on-year, food inflation stood at 20.31 per cent, though this remains lower than the 26.20 per cent recorded in July 2025 .
The Statistician-General of the Federation and CEO of the NBS, Prince Adeyemi Adeniran, presented the figures on August 15 in Abuja, noting that the Consumer Price Index rose to 145.3 points in July from 143.0 points in June, reflecting a 2.2-point increase in the general price level . Month-on-month headline inflation eased slightly to 1.57 per cent, down from 1.66 per cent in June, indicating that while prices continued to rise, they did so at a slower pace .
The NBS attributed the month-on-month spike in food prices to increases in the average prices of a wide range of staples that form the backbone of the average Nigerian household’s shopping basket . These include crayfish, fresh pepper, fresh onions, fresh carrots, rice, water yam, fresh tomatoes, garri, plantain, beef, eggs, guinea corn, ginger, and plantain flour, among others .
At the divisional level, food and non-alcoholic beverages remained the single largest driver of headline inflation, contributing 6.18 percentage points year-on-year, followed by restaurants and accommodation services at 1.99 per cent, and transport at 1.64 per cent . Housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels contributed 1.30 per cent, while education and health added 0.96 per cent and 0.94 per cent respectively .
Core inflation, which strips out volatile agricultural produce and energy, stood at 14.97 per cent year-on-year, down sharply from 23.95 per cent in July 2025 . On a month-on-month basis, core inflation slowed markedly to 0.15 per cent from 1.66 per cent in June, suggesting underlying price pressures outside food and energy have weakened considerably .
The urban-rural divide persisted, with urban inflation at 16.12 per cent year-on-year compared to rural inflation at 13.77 per cent . On a month-on-month basis, urban inflation eased to 1.90 per cent from 2.13 per cent in June, while rural inflation rose to 0.78 per cent from 0.52 per cent, suggesting price pressures are gradually shifting toward the countryside even as cities see some relief .
State-level data revealed stark regional disparities. Adamawa recorded the highest year-on-year headline inflation rate at 33.03 per cent, followed by Yobe at 25.21 per cent and Anambra at 23.99 per cent . At the other end, Nasarawa posted the lowest rate at 7.86 per cent, alongside Kebbi and Borno, both at 9.12 per cent . Food inflation was particularly severe in Adamawa, which recorded a staggering 51.36 per cent year-on-year, followed by Katsina at 30.84 per cent and Zamfara at 30.65 per cent .
The divergent trend between headline and food inflation leaves the Central Bank of Nigeria with a difficult policy calculation as its Monetary Policy Committee prepares for its September meeting . While the moderation in headline and core inflation may strengthen calls for a reduction in the Monetary Policy Rate, the sharp acceleration in monthly food prices could limit the scope for monetary easing, as food carries a significant weight in Nigerian household spending and reflects supply-side factors largely beyond the influence of monetary policy .
Analysts note that while the broader disinflation trend remains intact — with average annual headline inflation for the 12 months ending July 2026 falling to 16.89 per cent from 29.10 per cent in the corresponding period of 2025 — households continue to face fresh price increases in several food categories . For ordinary Nigerians, the mixed picture means that despite the headline improvement, the cost of putting food on the table remains a daily struggle, particularly in regions already grappling with insecurity and logistical challenges .
