LAGOS, Nigeria — A new analytical report has challenged widespread public claims that President Bola Tinubu’s administration has recorded the highest borrowing levels in Nigeria’s Fourth Republic, arguing instead that available data shows previous governments accumulated larger increases in external debt.
The report, published by ThinkBusiness Africa Ltd and titled “Who Borrowed Most? Nigeria’s Presidential Debt Record 1999–2025,” examined Nigeria’s external and domestic debt trends across successive administrations since 1999, using dollar-denominated figures to provide comparative analysis across different exchange rate regimes.
According to the findings, Nigeria’s external debt rose by approximately $9.4 billion between May 2023 and December 2025 under the administration of President Bola Tinubu. The report contrasted this with a significantly larger increase of about $32.6 billion recorded between 2015 and 2023 during the administration of former President Muhammadu Buhari.
The analysis noted that Nigeria’s external debt stock stood at about $42.5 billion when Tinubu assumed office in May 2023 and increased to approximately $51.9 billion by December 2025. In comparison, the report stated that external debt rose from roughly $10.3 billion in 2015 to $42.9 billion by 2023 under Buhari, representing the largest increase among post-1999 democratic administrations.
It further highlighted that earlier administrations recorded mixed trends, with former President Olusegun Obasanjo reducing external debt significantly through debt relief efforts, while subsequent governments under Umaru Musa Yar’Adua and Goodluck Jonathan saw more modest increases in debt levels.
The report also addressed concerns about domestic debt, noting that while naira-denominated figures appeared to rise sharply in recent years, much of the increase reflected currency depreciation and the reclassification of previously recorded obligations rather than entirely new borrowing. It argued that dollar-based assessments provide a more consistent basis for comparing debt accumulation across different administrations.
In its broader fiscal assessment, the report stated that total public debt in dollar terms rose only modestly between early 2023 and late 2025, even though naira figures showed a substantial increase. It attributed this discrepancy largely to exchange rate adjustments following economic policy changes introduced in mid-2023.
A key component of the analysis also referenced the securitisation of previously recorded “Ways and Means” advances, noting that part of the increase in domestic debt figures reflected accounting adjustments rather than fresh borrowing activities by the current administration.
While disputing claims of record-breaking borrowing under the Tinubu administration, the report warned that Nigeria continues to face significant fiscal pressure due to rising debt-servicing obligations. It noted that a large portion of government revenue is increasingly directed toward debt repayment, thereby limiting fiscal space for infrastructure, education, healthcare, and security spending.
The report concluded that public debate on Nigeria’s debt profile should shift away from headline borrowing comparisons and focus instead on long-term debt sustainability, revenue generation, fiscal discipline, and effective debt management strategies.
