(DDM) – China’s population crisis deepened in 2025 as official data confirmed that the country recorded a fourth consecutive year of population decline, intensifying fears about its long-term economic and social stability.
The National Bureau of Statistics revealed on Monday that China’s population fell by 3.39 million to approximately 1.405 billion, marking a sharper decline than the previous year and reinforcing concerns about a rapidly shrinking society.
The data showed that births plunged by 17 percent year-on-year to a historic low of 7.92 million, underscoring the growing reluctance of Chinese families to have children despite repeated government incentives.
At the same time, deaths climbed to 11.31 million, up from 10.93 million in 2024, widening the gap between births and deaths and accelerating the country’s demographic contraction.
Officials reported that China’s birth rate dropped to 5.63 births per 1,000 people, while the death rate rose to 8.04 per 1,000, the highest recorded level since 1968.
Demographers say the figures confirm that China has entered a prolonged phase of population decline that will be difficult to reverse, even with aggressive policy interventions.
Analysts warn that the shrinking population directly threatens China’s economic model, which has long depended on a large workforce and steady domestic consumption to sustain growth.
With fewer young people entering the labor market, businesses face mounting challenges in maintaining productivity, while an ageing population increases pressure on pensions, healthcare, and social welfare systems.
Experts note that decades of the one-child policy, high living costs, job insecurity, and rising education and housing expenses have discouraged marriage and childbearing among younger generations.
Although the Chinese government has rolled out measures such as tax incentives, extended maternity leave, childcare subsidies, and public campaigns encouraging larger families, these efforts have so far failed to reverse the trend.
Urbanization and changing social values have also reshaped family priorities, with many young couples prioritizing careers, financial stability, and personal freedom over starting families.
Economists caution that population decline could weaken domestic demand, complicate debt management, and slow economic expansion at a time when China is already grappling with property market stress and global trade pressures.
The ageing population further raises concerns about a shrinking tax base, as fewer workers support a growing number of retirees, potentially straining public finances.
International observers compare China’s demographic trajectory to that of Japan, warning that prolonged population decline could trap the country in decades of slower growth if structural reforms lag behind demographic realities.
Chinese authorities acknowledge the seriousness of the challenge but insist that productivity gains, technological innovation, and automation can offset workforce losses over time.
However, critics argue that technology alone cannot fully compensate for the social and economic consequences of sustained population shrinkage.
As China confronts its most severe demographic test in modern history, the latest figures highlight a sobering reality: reversing population decline may prove far harder than Beijing once anticipated.
The data sends a clear signal that China’s demographic future will play a decisive role in shaping its economic strength, global influence, and internal stability in the decades ahead.
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