El-Rufai’s move to SDP: A political strategy or a ruse?

DDM News

Former Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai’s defection to the Social Democratic Party (SDP) has sparked intense political debate.

Diaspora digital media (DDM) reports that many question why he joined the SDP instead of major opposition parties like the African Democratic Congress (ADC) or the Labour Party (LP).

Some analysts believe this move is a calculated effort to weaken the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) before the 2027 elections.

Others argue that it could be a carefully orchestrated plan that may ultimately benefit President Bola Tinubu’s reelection bid.

El-Rufai’s Political Strategy and Its Implications

El-Rufai’s defection is viewed by some as an attempt to consolidate opposition forces under the SDP’s platform.

Rather than joining a more established opposition party, he appears to be working toward uniting different political interests under one umbrella.

This move raises suspicions that opposition leaders foresee challenges ahead and are preparing to merge forces at a strategic moment.

His strategy closely resembles Tinubu’s tactics during the 2022 APC presidential primaries, which helped him secure the party’s nomination.

Tinubu’s 2022 Presidential Primary Strategy

During the APC primaries, Tinubu reportedly sponsored several aspirants by purchasing their nomination forms to split votes among opponents.

He later convinced key contenders to step down for him, ensuring a consolidated base of support before the final vote.

Tinubu also approached Chief Bisi Akande, a respected Yoruba elder, to persuade Yoruba aspirants to withdraw from the race.

He assured them that Akande would call and urge them to step down, while secretly securing his own victory plan.

Though some aspirants refused, they were ultimately outmaneuvered, allowing Tinubu to win the APC ticket with overwhelming support.

Parallels Between 2022 and 2027 Political Maneuvering

Observers suggest that a similar strategy is now unfolding ahead of the 2027 elections.

There are increasing signs that many APC figures may defect to the SDP to create the illusion of a strong opposition.

However, some political analysts believe this could be a controlled strategy with a hidden agenda favoring the APC.

Speculation suggests Tinubu may be using SDP to mobilize discontented politicians before strategically pulling them back into his camp.

If true, this tactic would allow him to weaken real opposition efforts while maintaining dominance over the political landscape.

Can the Opposition Truly Challenge APC?

Despite discussions of a united opposition, history suggests that PDP, LP, and SDP combined may still struggle against the APC.

The ruling party’s deep-rooted political structure, financial resources, and grassroots network remain major obstacles for opposition parties.

Similar to 2022, many defectors may eventually step down or realign with the APC, ensuring Tinubu’s continued hold on power.

A Warning to the Electorate

Political analysts urge Nigerians to remain vigilant as new political realignments unfold.

They warn that the current defections may be part of a pre-planned script designed to manipulate public perception.

Citizens are encouraged to critically assess whether these moves represent genuine opposition efforts or mere strategic power consolidation.

As the 2027 elections approach, Nigerians must be cautious of deceptive political maneuvers that create an illusion of change.

The coming months will determine whether El-Rufai’s defection signals real opposition unity or a calculated strategy favoring APC.

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